Marlins-Reds prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, August 7

The Miami Marlins take on the Cincinnati Reds in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, August 7. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park. Rookie phenom Eury Perez (5-3, 2.36 ERA) will make his long-awaited return to the mound for the Marlins, while lefty Brandon Williamson (3-2, 4.85 ERA) will pitch for the Reds.

Miami enters as -135 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Cincinnati coming in at +114. The total is set at 10.5.

Marlins-Reds picks: Monday, August 7

Injury report

Marlins

Out: RP Matt Barnes (hip), RP Tommy Nance (shoulder), RP Anthony Bender (elbow)

Reds

Day to day: RP Alex Young (back)
Out: OF Jake Fraley (toe), C Curt Casali (foot), 2B Jonathan India (foot), SP Ben Lively (pectoral), RP Casey Legumina (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Eury Perez vs. Brandon Williamson

Perez had a fantastic June, finishing the month with an ERA of 0.32 over five starts. He allowed just one earned run in 28 innings and recorded 35 strikeouts in the month. However, he then let up six earned runs in 0.1 innings against the Braves, and spent some time in the Minors as Miami wanted to be careful with the future of its top pitching prospect. With the Marlins’ playoff hopes fading, Perez now returns to a Major League mound for the first time since the All-Star break.

Williamson had a solid July, closing out the month with an ERA of 2.45 over five starts. In his latest outing, he conceded five earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Cubs. He also recorded a season-high seven strikeouts in the start.

Over/Under pick

Neither team has been hitting big lately, and both have dropped games consistently throughout the start of August. With this high of a total — and Perez back on the mound — I’ll go ahead and take the under.

Pick: Under 10.5

Moneyline pick

The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games and just got swept by the Rangers. The Reds are on a six-game losing streak and got swept by the Nationals. It isn’t looking great for either team, but I’m betting on Perez here. He struggled at the beginning of July, but looked out of this world in June. As he faces a whiff-happy Reds lineup (and a suspect Cincy pitching staff), let’s take the Marlins for the first win here.