Marlins vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Miami Marlins (58-55) carry a four-game losing run into a road contest versus the Cincinnati Reds (59-55), at 6:40 PM ET on Monday.

As the favorite, the Marlins (-137 moneyline odds to win) visit the Reds (+114). The over/under in the game is set at 10.5 total runs.

The betting trends in the article below are based off odds valid as of August 7, 2023 at 9:12 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Marlins vs Reds Betting Lines

Marlins Betting Insights

• The Marlins have been favorites in 55 games this season and won 33 (60%) of those contests.
• Miami has a record of 24-7 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -137 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 57.8% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
• Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 52 of 113 opportunities.
• The Marlins are 50-63-0 ATS in their 113 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Reds Betting Insights

• The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 83 games this year and have walked away with the win 40 times (48.2%) in those games.
• Cincinnati has a mark of 27-34 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +114 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 46.7% chance of walking away with the win.
• Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 59 of its 114 opportunities.
• The Reds have an against the spread mark of 68-46-0 in 114 games with a line this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Eury Perez

• Perez and his team have a record of 6-5-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The right-hander last pitched on Thursday, July 6, when he threw six innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up one earned run.
• In 11 starts this season, Perez has lasted five or more innings eight times, with an average of 4.8 innings per appearance.
• He has five appearances with no earned runs allowed in 11 chances this season.
• Perez’s team is 3-4 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• Perez’s team is 5-6 when he starts this season.
• In Perez’s 11 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Reds Probable Pitcher – Brandon Williamson

• The Reds will send Williamson (3-2) to make his 15th start of the season. He is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 68 2/3 innings pitched.
• In his most recent appearance on Thursday against the Chicago Cubs, the lefty went 4 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs while surrendering four hits.
• Williamson has put together nine starts this year where he pitched five or more innings.
• In one of his appearances this season he has not give up an earned run.
• The Reds have a 7-5 record in Williamson’s 12 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
• Williamson’s team has won nine of his 14 starts.
• Williamson has started 14 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in seven of them.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Marlins Hitting Trends

• The Marlins have a 14-20 record in games this season when they smash at least two home runs.
• Miami has had at least five extra-base hits in 20 games this season, and has gone 19-1 in those contests.
• The team is 48-39 in the games this season it has racked up eight or more hits.
• Miami is 40-12 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
• The Marlins have drawn five or more walks in 25 games this season, and are 13-12 in those contests.

Reds Hitting Trends

• They are 30-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• In 34 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 26-8.
• They have a record of 54-23 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
• In 70 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 58-12.
• In 38 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 18-20

Marlins vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (+114)
Over/Under Pick: Over (10.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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