Maryland football: ESPN's prediction in battle of unbeatens at No. 4 Ohio State

Maryland football finds itself as a three-possession underdog heading into a matchup of unbeatens at No. 4 Ohio State, and one analytical model is more optimistic about the Terps’ chances than the sportsbooks.

ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly’s week six SP+ picks peg the Terps as 16.1-point underdogs with a 19% chance to win and a projected 34-18 Ohio State victory. As of Monday morning, FanDuel Sportsbook has Ohio State as an 18.5-point favorite.

As referenced in each weekly SP+ prediction piece, Connelly defines SP+, which he created in 2008, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that is “predictive and forward-facing” and “not a résumé ranking.” Heading into week six, Maryland is the No. 31 team in the SP+ rankings, a rise of two spots from last week. The Terps have the No. 38 offense, No. 22 defense and No. 80 special teams unit in the country, per SP+.

The Terps are 5-0 for the first time since 2001, when they went 10-2, won the ACC title and played in the Orange Bowl. Locksley was Maryland’s running backs coach and recruiting coordinator in 2001.

“There are a lot of people that didn't think we could do that, do this, where we are,” Mike Locksley said postgame following the win over Indiana. “Are we there yet? No. I mean, we got work to do, but I'm not going to get negative. We're 5-0 and we're going to keep this thing going and we're going to keep plugging away, man.”

Maryland has yet to play a team ranked in the SP+ top 50; Michigan State is No. 57, Indiana is No. 91, Virginia is No. 94, Charlotte is No. 131 and Towson is not ranked as an FCS team. The Terps have an average margin of victory of 25.4 points through five games.

Ohio State is 4-0 and the No. 2 team in SP+ with the No. 6 offense, No. 6 defense and No. 30 special teams unit. The Buckeyes have played, with SP+ rankings attached, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 89 Western Kentucky, No. 91 Indiana and FCS Youngstown State. The Buckeyes’ average margin of victory is 26 points.

Kickoff between the Terps and the Buckeyes in Columbus is set for noon Saturday on FOX.