Maryland vs UCLA Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

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22 December 2023

Maryland vs UCLA Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

The UCLA Bruins' NCAA Tournament chances are in the dumps and the offense is a big part of that issue. The Maryland Terrapins have also had the same offensive issues and our college basketball picks believe that's the perfect recipe for an Under.

There’s a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup to watch on the hardwood Friday night as the Maryland Terrapins head to Pauley Pavilion to face the UCLA Bruins. These two will be conference foes soon enough, but for now they meet in non-conference competition. Both teams are struggling mightily and need a win to remain in the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Something will have to give in a matchup between two teams with a combined 6-14 spread record, and looking at the college basketball odds, the Bruins are 3.5-point home favorites while the total resides at 129.5.

It’s the total I’m eyeing with my best bet on Friday evening as neither offense has found a rhythm and both defenses are sound and well-coached.

college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. UCLA on Friday, December 22.

Maryland vs UCLA best odds

Maryland vs UCLA picks and predictions

Kevin Willard’s Maryland Terrapins are 7-4 on the season. Things have brightened a bit after a disastrous 1-3 start as his squad has reeled six wins in its last seven games. The Terps finished 22-13 in Year One under Willard a year ago and won a first-round NCAA Tournament game, so a steep falloff wasn’t necessarily expected.

This team is stacked with experience as five of the top six scorers are upperclassmen. Guard Jahmir Young leads the way with 17.7 points per game and pairs with forward Julian Reese (15.2 ppg) to contribute most of the shots that wind up in the basket. No other Terp averages double digits.

Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins lost a ton of experience from last year’s team and it's been abundantly clear in this year’s product on the court — which has been downright bad most of the time. The Bruins are just 5-5 and a chance to go dancing might require dues ex machina.

Cronin’s squad enters this one in dire straits after three straight losses, including this most recent one to Cal State Northridge, a team that ranks just 243rd in KenPom. Despite that being the case, oddsmakers are still giving them the benefit of the doubt by establishing them as 3.5-point favorites.

I have my eyes set on the total more so than a side for this contest. Both teams have been dead set on the Under so far — Maryland is 4-7 O/U while UCLA is 2-7 O/U. For the folks not counting at home, that’s a combined record of 6-14 O/U.

It’s not a mystery why that’s been the case — both have been far better on the defensive end of the court than on offense, and both play at a slow pace. UCLA ranks 120 spots higher in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (25th) than offensive efficiency (146th) while Maryland checks in 134 spots higher (25th to 159th).

Urgency is not a word anyone would use to describe these plodding offenses. The Bruins rank 298th in adjusted tempo while hoisting 56 field goal attempts per game (315th nationally) whereas the Terps rank 261st in adjusted tempo and attempt 57.9 field goals per game (256th).

Since the Terps don’t play fast, it’s a bit alarming to see how inefficient they’ve been in the half-court. Their effective field percentage of 43.3% on non-transition looks rank just 340th nationally per Hoop-Math.

UCLA does a good job of taking away transition buckets as only 19.9% of opposing field goal attempts come in transition (40th lowest). Once in the half court, the Bruins suffocate teams and allow a 44.6% effective field goal percentage (67th).

Maryland takes a decent percentage (40.5%) of its shots from deep but is wildly inefficient on them (26.7% on 3-pointers). Yuck. UCLA has shut down the arc, holding opponents to just 29.2% from 3-point land.

It’s a similar case in half-court inefficiency on the other side of things, where UCLA ranks just 292nd in percentage of shots taken in transition (20.7%). Maryland has a tough half-court defense, ranking 87th in non-transition effective field goal percentage allowed (45.2%).

This UCLA team consistently projects to play in low-scoring, slow-paced games, and that’s a dance that Maryland seems willing to oblige in as a Friday night partner. Give me the Under for these two slow-dancing dalliers.

My best bet: Under 129.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Maryland vs UCLA same-game parlay

Under 129

Maryland +3.5

Adem Bona 10+ points

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Here’s a three-leg SGP centered around my projected game flow — a tight, low-scoring game that takes place primarily inside the arc, especially when UCLA has the ball.

In addition to my best bet on the Under, I’m going to add Maryland at +3.5. There’s no way I can lay points with this UCLA team right now regardless of where the game is being played. Keep in mind this is the same floundering team that needed a de facto buzzer-beater to beat UC Riverside by one point at home and just lost to *checks notes* Cal State Northridge at Pauley... yikes

My third and final leg will be for UCLA star big man Adem Bona to score at least 10 points. This game will primarily be played in the half court and Bona should be relied upon heavily to stem the bleeding.

Maryland allows plenty of looks in the paint as 42.6% of opposing shots have come at the rim, the 60th-highest mark nationally. Bona has a 26.6% usage rate on the year while averaging 12.5 ppg and should be fed early and often.

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Maryland vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis

UCLA opened at -4, but the line has come in a half point at most books and a full point at others as -3.5s and -3s are available as of late Thursday night. The total has been moving upward, opening at 126.5 but moving to as high as 129.5 at spots.

I disagree with the move on the total and wouldn’t mind waiting to see if I can buy more if this movement continues to head in this direction.

As for the spread, UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games while Maryland isn’t much better at 1-3 ATS in that same span.

One thing that can be said of the Bruins is they mostly play to the level of their competition. They’ve hung tight with good teams like Marquette (71-69 loss) and Gonzaga (69-65 loss) and haven’t lost by double-digits yet this year. That being said, they’ve also played down against teams like UC Riverside and Cal State Northridge and haven’t seemed to find an extra gear.