Mavericks vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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18 December 2023

Mavericks vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Derrick Jones Jr. has been a diamond in the rough for the Mavericks since joining the squad, and our NBA picks believe he'll flex his defensive muscles against the Denver Nuggets tonight.

The two leading candidates for the 2023-24 NBA MVP odds are facing off for the first time this season, as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks square off against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.

The Mavericks have been scorching hot from the perimeter but play little defense, ironically the formula that Denver used to dominate last year’s regular season. The Nuggets have been a more balanced team this time around but will need strong performances from Jokic and Murray to overcome Luka and cover the -7 spread set by the NBA odds.

My free NBA picks for the Mavericks vs. Nuggets on December 18 zero in on what’s changed this season for Derrick Jones Jr. that’s allowing him to produce at career-best rates.

Mavericks vs Nuggets odds

Mavericks vs Nuggets predictions

The Dallas Mavericks received a lot of kudos this summer for some key offseason acquisitions including the likes of former Boston Celtic Grant Williams. But there were almost no headlines when they signed Derrick Jones Jr., and yet 25 games into the season Jones has emerged as a pivotal piece of what’s working for the Mavs.

Jones is a renowned NBA athlete, who probably became known to most NBA fans when he won the Dunk Contest during the 2017 All-Star weekend. He’s played bit parts on several teams since then, flashing impressive defensive potential and bringing juice to some older and slower outfits. But in that time, he’s typically been relegated to a bench role because his 3-point shooting hasn’t held up.

Jones has made clear strides in that area, however. He’s taking 6.5 threes per 36 minutes and hitting them at better than 37% clip. That level of shooting is more than good enough to earn Jones a bigger role in the rotation, and he’s started all but one of the 24 games he’s played for the Mavs. His 24.1 minutes per game is also a career high.

As a starter, his value as a defensive player can truly shine. He’s fast and agile and seems impossibly long. He gets his hands in passing lanes, disrupts off-ball action, guards the best opposing wing or guard, and routinely blows up plays. Opposing guards who think to thread the needle around him routinely misjudge just how long his reach is.

Opponents driving to the rim make the same mistake, as Jones is also a strong candidate to make a chase-down block or one rotating from help defense. He still has elite hops, allowing him to track down and challenge even the NBA’s best finishers at the rim.

All this has led to strong steal and block rates over his career, and with increased minutes, strong production in both categories. Jones is averaging 2.2 steals and blocks over his last 10 games and has had at least two combined in eight of his last 10.

These Derrick Jones Jr. odds aren’t appropriate to the consistency of his defensive production this season, making this my favorite bet on Monday’s board.

My best bet: Derrick Jones Jr. Over 1.5 steals and blocks (-130 at bet365)

Mavericks vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Derrick Jones Jr. Over 0.5 blocks

Derrick Jones Jr. Over 0.5 steals

Dante Exum Over 3.5 assists

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Since Jones Jr. Over 1.5 combined steals and blocks isn’t available for Monday’s SGP, I’m instead including Jones Over 0.5 blocks and 0.5 steals as the first two legs. For my third and final leg, I’m highlighting yet another strong offseason addition by Dallas, Dante Exum.

Exum was out of the NBA for a few years after not working out as a high lottery pick but strong play in Europe landed him a contract with the Mavericks. That deal has been paying dividends for Dallas.

Exum provides the Mavs with another ballhandler, even more important to Dallas with Kyrie Irving missing time. He also gives them defense and athleticism on the wing, which is something they have desperately needed.

Like Jones Jr., he is doing just enough as an outside shooter now that defenses have to guard him, allowing him to lean into his strengths as a passer. Exum is averaging 4.6 assists over his last five games and seems likely to stay at that rate with Irving sidelined.

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Mavericks vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Nuggets opened as -6.5-point favorites which has since increased to -7.5 at most sportsbooks.

Derrick Lively missing Monday’s game is a big blow. Despite being a rookie, Lively is arguably Dallas’ third most indispensable player after Luka and Kyrie. Without him the Nuggets should beast Dallas at the basket and on the glass, meaning Luka will have to turn in a special performance just to keep pace with all the Nuggets' easy buckets and second-chance points.

Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are probable, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope missed their game against the Thunder after entering the concussion protocol, and while officially questionable, in my mind he's unlikely to play.

Monday’s total opened between 237.5 and 239 but has since coalesced in the middle at 238.5 almost everywhere. Dallas has consistently played some of the highest-scoring games this season, and the Over is 18-7 through 25 games. That record climbs to an even stronger ratio when on the road as they are tonight, with the Over cashing in 10 of their last 13 road games.

Denver has trended in the opposite direction, with the Under cashing in seven of their 12 games at home. The Nuggets’ offense hasn't hit the same level of consistent excellence as it did last season, and their defense has been much stronger on average to boot.