Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Memphis desperately needed a win, and got one, taking down Utah by 14. Absent Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Steven Adams, and many (many) more, Memphis is just trying to stay afloat until Morant's suspension is up. So, Jaren Jackson Jr's 20-point performance was crucial for a team that's 29th in offensive rating per NBA.com. They are dead last in true shooting percentage and 28th in free throw rate. Elsewhere, the Grizzlies have been mediocre. There's no surprise that injuries have decimated this team, and it's shown the most offensively.

The Grizzlies have managed to stay 16th in defensive rating even through their various key absences. They generally keep teams to 110 or fewer points. A top 10 turnover percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, block percentage, and rim shooting percentage against carry Memphis. The theme there is a strong interior, led by Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis is much weaker on the perimeter, which has led to the worst three-point percentage against. Protecting the paint shouldn't be an issue, but can the Grizzlies force Dallas to miss threes?

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Michael Briggs, 28-19, $746Kyrie Irving didn't play against the Grizzlies in October, but Luka Doncic shot 6-12 from deep en route to 35 points. Scoring pilots this Dallas team, which is third in offensive rating. Their only glaring flaws are offensive rebounding and free throw percentage. Otherwise, Dallas is top 10 in efficiency from all three levels of the floor. The Mavericks also have the lowest offensive turnover percentage in the NBA. They had no issues against Memphis in round one and will try to build upon Tuesday's 121-point performance.

The other end of the floor is where Dallas will get in trouble, as they're only 24th in defensive rating. With the aforementioned backcourt duo of Doncic and Irving, that's not very surprising. On defense, the Mavericks once again struggle with rebounding, while ranking 19th in turnover percentage. Dallas has the weakest rim defense in the NBA, allowing makes on 69.7% of attempts. Attacking the interior is how opponents succeed against the Mavs. Will Memphis follow the blueprint?

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With how Dallas plays basketball, this game should be a high-scoring one. They're third in offensive rating, but one of the league's worst defenses. As the better team with the benefit of home-court advantage, expect their playstyle to win out.

That will result in this game finishing over the total like the last one (235 total points). Dallas can expose Memphis' weak perimeter defense again, while the Mavs will give the Grizzlies ample opportunity to get buckets back. 230 points are a given for this matchup.