Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds, picks, predictions: Bet this two-leg parlay
The Dallas Mavericks will hope for a split of their regular-season series with the Timberwolves when they visit Minnesota on Wednesday night.
However, winning won’t be easy, as the Mavericks will be without three starters for the game. Luka Doncic (ankle), Kyrie Irving (thumb) and Dereck Lively II (nose) have all been ruled out.
A fourth starter, Derrick Jones Jr., is questionable with a wrist injury along with backup point guard Dante Exum (knee). Both players will be a game-time decision.
Thus, given their lengthy injury list, you can understand why the Mavericks are catching as many as 14.5 points after opening as 3.5-point underdogs.
The only question remaining for this matchup is whether we can trust the Timberwolves as a heavy favorite in this price range.
Let’s take a look.
When key players are injured, I’ll often query how the teams perform in their absence. In this instance, the Mavericks are 2-6 straight-up but 5-3 against the spread dating to last season when Doncic and Irving sat.
And while I certainly wouldn’t include Lively as a star in Dallas, the rookie from Duke has been the Mavericks’ preferred starter at the center position with 35 starts in the 36 games he has played. Just a year ago, it was Dwight Powell who started 64 of 76 games at center.
At 7-foot-1, Lively gives the Mavericks more height and athleticism at the position, particularly when attacking the rim in pick-and-roll situations. Dallas will miss his size and ability to protect the rim on the defensive end of the floor.
We can draw some insight from the teams’ second meeting this season when Doncic and Irving both sat out with injuries. Minnesota won that game, 118-110.
Although Lively only scored two points in the contest, I think the Mavericks’ offense will look even more disjointed without three of their starters.
The Timberwolves (33-14) have won seven of their last 10 games to maintain a half-game lead over the Nuggets for the top seed in the Western Conference.
Minnesota’s success is due to its defense that, according to TeamRankings, allows a league-best 105.9 points per 100 possessions.
With their dominant defense, opposing teams struggle to build big leads against them. Minnesota’s last four losses were by seven or fewer points, with its largest defeat (127-120) during that stretch occurring in overtime and not regulation.
The Timberwolves would currently be on a four-game winning streak if they hadn’t blown a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead on the road against the Spurs.
Over that stretch, Minnesota held opponents to an average of 103.8 points. As a result, the under cashed in all four games.
The total is 7-3 to the under not only in Minnesota’s last 10 games but also its last 10 meetings with Dallas. Moreover, all three matchups this season finished under the total.
Although we’ve seen a significant adjustment in the total from 228.5 down to as low as 222, I’ll share how you can still recover some value in spite of these line moves.
I generally like to get creative in these types of games where we have a massive move in either direction. One option would certainly be to target a player on the Mavericks who could have an increase in usage with Doncic and Irving sitting.
However, the sportsbooks don’t appear to be in much of a rush to put up any Mavericks’ player props. They’ve also been slow to put any derivatives, as first-quarter or first-half bets on the Timberwolves could be intriguing.
Thus, I’m really only left with targeting the side or total in this matchup.
However, we could swing the odds back in our favor with a BetRivers parlay on the Timberwolves at -6 (-530) paired with the under at 228.5 (-200).
This combination gives us -127 odds, which is a decent price since we get some insurance on the under and avoid laying double digits on the point spread.
Pick: Two-leg parlay (-127): Timberwolves -6 (-530) / under 228.5 (-200)
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