Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Betting Odds, Prediction & Trends

The Dallas Mavericks head to San Francisco to face the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night at 8:30 PM ET. Can the Warriors cover the 4.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Mavericks vs. Warriors betting prediction.

The Dallas Mavericks are 18-14 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 17-15 ATS this season.

The Golden State Warriors are 15-16 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 15-16 ATS this season.

577 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) at 578 Golden State Warriors (-4.5); o/u 240.5

8:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 30, 2023

Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 83% of public bettors are currently backing the Mavericks when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Dallas superstar point guard Luka Doncic missed the club’s last game on Thursday with a left quad injury, and he’s officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against Golden State. Doncic is averaging 33.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 9.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game for the Mavericks this year.

Mavericks point guard Kyrie Irving won’t be available to play on Saturday as he works his way back from a right heel contusion. Irving is second on the team in scoring this season with 23.0 points per game and second in assists with 5.2 dimes per game this year.

Warriors forward Kevon Looney is questionable to play on Saturday night due to an illness. Looney is averaging 5.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in 28 starts for Golden State this season. If Looney is unable to play, Warriors rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis should see some more floor time.

Golden State power forward Draymond Green is still suspended by the league due to his role in an on-court altercation earlier this month. Green could be back after the start of the new year. He’s averaging 9.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game on the campaign.

Dallas is 8-5 ATS after a loss this season.

Dallas is 8-6 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season.

Golden State is 4-9 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Golden State is 11-13 ATS in conference games this season.

Luka Doncic has been listed as questionable with a quad injury for his team’s past two games. Doncic played against Cleveland on Wednesday, sat out against Minnesota on Thursday, and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game at Golden State. I’d keep an eye on the injury report to see if he’s going to play. It’s worth noting that the Mavericks covered the spread against the Timberwolves on the road on Thursday night without Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving.

Golden State’s dynasty might be unofficially over. The Warriors are 6-10 ATS at home and 6-12 ATS as a favorite this season. What’s worse, Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Dallas. The Warriors’ formerly explosive offense now ranks 15th in offensive efficiency, 19th in effective field goal percentage, and 17th in true shooting percentage in 2023. Golden State is shooting 36.7% from beyond the arc this season which only ranks 15th in the league. When you combine the Warriors’ mediocre shooting with a defense that ranks 19th in points allowed per game and 14th in defensive efficiency, you get a team that is essentially league-average. For that reason and several others, I’m backing the Mavericks and the points on the road in San Francisco on Saturday night.