Members Extra: Free & exclusive betting tips & analysis for the Abu Dhabi Championship

sportinglife.com

17 January 2023

Ben ended 2021 almost 700 points in profit after a lucrative 2020, with two winners at 150/1 and many more besides ensuring it was another year to remember for his followers.

His tally for 2022 passed 500 points thanks to a golden summer including winners ranging from 25/1 to 200/1, two of them coming on the Korn Ferry Tour as well as 28/1 headline tip Cameron Smith in the Open Championship.

Now, he'll be scouring tournaments beyond the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, as well as looking for first-round leader selections.

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Golf betting tips: Members Extra

0.5pt e.w. Scott Jamieson to lead after R1 at 80/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

0.5pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren to lead after R1 at 100/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt double Jamieson and Mansell to win their 3-balls at 4.98/1 (BoyleSports)

Yas Links is precisely the sort of golf course that could throw up a strong draw bias, as one that likely isn't too problematic under calm conditions but bares real teeth when the wind starts to blow.

There probably won't be one this week, but day one certainly has the potential to favour those starting late and while it may not be by much, it's enough to suggest the leader(s) could come from the PM-AM wave.

As of now, winds are forecast to gust at up to 25mph in the morning and that figure drops steadily to around 12mph come the evening, so the later the better as far as day one tee-times are concerned.

That leads nicely into JOAKIM LAGERGREN, a streaky scorer who was on the radar anyway owing to a fabulous record by the sea as well as on Kyle Phillips-designed courses.

Both those factors were at play when he won his sole DP World Tour title in Sicily and he's got a sensational record in the Dunhill Links, including at Kingsbarns. Close to winning in Qatar, Portugal and Denmark, everywhere you look he's shown how effective he is under exposed conditions.

Last year saw Lagergren lead the European Open after day one but more recently, he signed off with a best-of-the-day 66 in Dubai, prior to which he'd placed twice in four starts in the first-round leader market.

Formerly an early pace-setter in Denmark as well as in the frame in the Netherlands, Qatar, Scotland, Sicily and Madeira, this dynamite putter has plenty in his favour under the anticipated conditions despite the fact he's volatile and making his return following a month and a half away.

SCOTT JAMIESON set the target last year and he's landed the last tee-time from the first, meaning he'll sign off at the par-five 18th where hopefully he's in position to challenge the pick of the scores.

Jamieson also held the lead at Al Hamra and has an excellent Middle East record in general, as he does in South Africa where he ended last year right in the mix at Leopard Creek.

Prior to that he'd placed in this market but it's his record first-time-out that really catches the eye. Jamieson has finished in the top 20 in each of his last four appearances in Abu Dhabi, perhaps helped by the fact that he bases himself in Florida over Christmas these days.

Even before making that switch he would often pop up on his return, most notably when second in the Volvo Golf Champions, and given his persistent struggles to get over the line, this is probably the best market in which to play him – although a fifth Abu Dhabi top-20 in succession has to be considered at 3/1, too.

Jamieson also rates one of the best three-ball bets, with Espen Kofstad off since Portugal and having missed the cut here last year, while Matthew Jordan also struggled on his debut at the course and ended last season a little way below his best.

Doubling Jamieson with RICHARD MANSELL makes for around a 5/1 chance and I'm not sure the market is quite onto the latter yet, someone I think has genuine Ryder Cup potential for all the likelihood is he falls just short this time.

He begins his Abu Dhabi debut with Edoardo Molinari and Max Kieffer, two shorter hitters who can struggle badly on the greens, and as conditions calm it's Mansell's extra power and improved putting that can win the day.

Although he's not played Yas Links in competition, he was out there a month ago and fell in love with the course, labelling the back nine the best he'd ever seen. Given that during a progressive 2022 campaign he led the Dunhill Links going into round four and started with a pair of 64s in Denmark, his driver-first game is showing real versatility now and he could go well this week.

Mansell has an edge over his two playing partners having taken part in last week's Hero Cup and with neither of them having fared well here last year, his lack of competitive course experience isn't a handicap.

Elsewhere, if you've the right accounts to be able to back both Victor Perez (Paddy Power, Betfair) and Antoine Rozner (bet365, William Hill) at 3/1 each for top Frenchman honours, that's the best even-money wager you'll find anywhere all week.

Julien Brun contended here last year and is respected, but beyond that we've a returning Alex Levy, prime withdrawal candidate Victor Dubuisson, plus course debutants Julien Guerrier and Matthie Pavon. The best two French players have everything in their favour, including a warm-up last week, and mopping up the pick of the prices is recommended to those who can.

In-play and three-ball punters should also keep a close eye on Ashun Wu, who withdrew having hacked it round when last we saw him. He could be one to take on in round two if there's any hint of a serious issue but for now I'd be a little too wary of Sami Valimaki's potential for a lights-out putting day to be putting up Richie Ramsay at the odds.

I was keen to oppose the returning Calum Hill but can't split Brun and Jeff Winther in that group, while I did wonder whether chancing a couple at big prices might be the way to play the top South African betting with Justin Harding back from a long absence, but perhaps that just means Thriston Lawrence is going to take all the beating.

Posted at 1700 GMT on 17/01/23

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