Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: Chaos Bracket That Could Actually Happen
As you're filling out a bracket for the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament, your natural inclination may be a risk-averse, relatively chalk-heavy approach.
The best-seeded teams are there for a reason, right?
Forget that noise.
Bleacher Report's annual tradition is back for another year, imagining how a chaos-filled March Madness might play out. We identified three of four Final Four participants in 2019, finished with a 93rd percentile bracket in 2021 and—well, we don't talk about 2022. Auburn did us dirty.
The picks are intensely subjective—in other words, they're supposed to be unexpected—but focus on recent performance, key statistics and both team and NCAA tournament trends.
Make your picks: Play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge and Tournament Run.
Biggest first-round upset: No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia
Breaking down Virginia's defense is a five-man effort complete with off-ball spacing and safe passes. All nine members of Furman's rotation shoot at least 1.5 threes per game, and the Paladins—who lead the country in two-point percentage—rank 40th in turnover rate thanks to four players averaging two-plus assists. Virginia finds itself in legitimate danger for another early NCAA tourney exit.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 6 Creighton over No. 3 Baylor
While it's tempting to pick an Alabama loss, both Maryland and West Virginia have struggled against their best competition. Given how poorly Baylor finished the season, a second-round departure wouldn't be shocking. The nation's worst rim-protecting defense, per Hoop-Math.com, might have no answer for 7-foot Creighton star Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Final Four team: No. 2 Arizona
Please don't fool me twice. Last season, I believed in the Wildcats...and they proceeded to lose in the Sweet 16. However, their draw is considerably move favorable in 2023 even after dipping to a No. 2 seed. Any school that can rebound with Alabama will be a tough matchup for the top-seeded Tide, and Arizona's backcourt has a deep group of perimeter options led by Courtney Ramey and Kerr Kriisa.
Biggest first-round upset: No. 13 Louisiana over No. 4 Tennessee
Tennessee is a thorn because of its outstanding defense, but the Vols' offense can be frustratingly mediocre. Only one of Tennessee's six players averaging five-plus points has a field-goal percentage higher than 41.8—a stunningly low number. Look, defense may carry UT anyway. But if Louisiana's 23rd-ranked perimeter group is hitting shots from beyond the arc, the Vols are in trouble.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 8 Memphis over No. 1 Purdue
In a classic contrast of styles, Purdue ranks 322nd in KenPom's adjusted tempo compared to Memphis at No. 17. Whichever team controls the pace of this matchup gains a serious edge. Memphis needs to create transition moments to avoid bogging down in half-court sets, but a senior-loaded rotation could overwhelm the freshmen in Purdue's backcourt.
Final Four team: No. 5 Duke
Could the Blue Devils land a more favorable hypothetical path? First, avoid Tennessee. Then, miss Purdue. One more victory, and Duke returns to the Final Four. The first-round showdown with Oral Roberts should not be overlooked, and an Elite Eight matchup with Marquette would test Duke's defense significantly. But since we're talking chaos, it has to be the Blue Devils returning to the Final Four in the first season of the post-Mike Krzyzewski era.
Biggest first-round upset: No. 15 Colgate over No. 2 Texas
Colgate is poised to record a top-10 three-point percentage for the fourth time in the past five seasons. This year, the Raiders lead the country with a 40.8 clip. That strength should be concerning for a Texas defense that isn't immune to disappearing acts. Throw in that Colgate has surrendered the 18th-lowest offensive rebounding rate, and Texas may be unable to grind out an ugly victory.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 11 Pitt over No. 3 Xavier
Although it doesn't quite happen every year, the 11-over-3 upset is a regular occurrence. Pitt is not a great defensive team, yet the Panthers have five players who scored 20-plus points in a game this season. We've seen programs hit a collective hot streak in March, and even Xavier's powerful scoring attack may struggle to match a sizzling Pitt offense.
Final Four team: No. 1 Houston
This prediction is based on the expectation Marcus Sasser will be available for the NCAA tournament. As long as he's ready, Houston is the clear favorite in the Midwest—especially in our chaotic scenario where Texas and Xavier are eliminated before the Sweet 16.
Biggest first-round upset: No. 12 VCU over No. 5 Saint Mary's
Six years ago, Saint Mary's toppled VCU in a first-round contest. But in 2023, VCU exacts some revenge in the ever-popular No. 5/No. 12 game. The ideal way to upset a slow-tempo Saint Mary's requires a barrage of ball pressure, and VCU's havoc defense again is one of the nation's best (11th) at forcing turnovers.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 8 Arkansas over No. 1 Kansas
Arkansas fell short of high preseason expectations in SEC play but is plenty talented. While the Hogs are inefficient on offense, Kansas isn't a model of consistency, either. Arkansas ranks 11th nationally in finishing at the rim, and Kansas—which is 141st in the category on defense—doesn't have an imposing shot-blocker. Arkansas has to create off the dribble, but the potential for a KU letdown is there.
Final Four team: No. 4 Connecticut
Similar to Duke, enjoy this upset-filled journey to the Elite Eight, UConn! Provided the Huskies dispatch Iona, they'd advance to face VCU and Arkansas instead of the No. 5 and No. 1 seeds. The combination of UConn's elite rebounding, superb three-point defense, quality perimeter offense and rim-protecting prowess is highly appealing.
To recap, the national semifinals would send Arizona up against Duke and Houston opposite UConn.
But the underdog dreams wilt in the Final Four.
Duke generally has a great size advantage in the frontcourt with Dereck Lively II and Kyle Filipowski. Arizona, though, can counter with Ažuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo, and their rotation is loaded with efficient three-point shooters—something Duke lacks.
Houston, again, needs a healthy Sasser to advance in the Big Dance. However, the depth of the Cougars' defensive talent is just so impressive, and they're just as dominant a rebounding team as UConn.
I would gladly pay to watch a title showdown with Arizona and Houston, two of the nation's top teams this season.
Houston's ability to lock down the perimeter will catapult the program—which, to date, has made six appearances in the Final Four—past Arizona and to its first NCAA championship.
