Miami vs. Houston Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Another Top Seed Go Down in March Madness?

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23 March 2023

Miami vs. Houston Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Another Top Seed Go Down in March Madness?

The Houston Cougars will try to avoid becoming the third No. 1 seed to get eliminated when they face the fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes on Friday. Read on for our Miami vs. Houston prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

We saw two No. 1 seeds go down in the opening weekend of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, meaning nobody is truly safe this year. Houston, the top team in the Midwest Region, needs to pick up two wins in Kansas City to return home for the Final Four and a chance to complete a storybook season.

Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars reminded everybody why they are the team to beat when they held Auburn to 23 points in the second half of their 81-64 win in the Round of 32. Miami has a more lethal backcourt and is coming off wins over Drake and Indiana on the opening weekend.

So, are the Hurricanes being disrespected by a 7-point betting line?

Here is our best Miami vs. Houston prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Miami vs. Houston odds

The highest-ranked recruit in program history often flies a bit under the radar when talking about the Houston Cougars. We spent much of the opening weekend focusing on guards Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead, especially since both players dealt with injuries last week.

Assuming Sasser is closer to 100%, Miami’s defensive game plan will likely start with him. But I really like Walker’s game, and think he is in a position to have a big performance on Friday night.

Walker, a 6-foot-8 forward destined to hear his name called in this year’s NBA Draft, put on a show in the win over Auburn in the Round of 32. He collected 10 rebounds, blocked six shots, recorded two assists, and added seven points for good measure.

I expect Walker to be more involved offensively against a Miami frontcourt that lacks the size and athleticism to slow him down. The Hurricanes, who prefer to hard hedge on ball screens, rank in the 55th percentile at defending the roll man in pick-and-rolls. They are also in the fifth percentile at defending post-ups and fourth percentile at stopping cuts, per Synergy Sports Technology.

Walker can score at three different levels and will be used in a variety of ways to get Houston’s offense going. During his 16-point performance against Northern Kentucky in the opening round, Walker scored eight points on cuts and six more on post-up plays.

This season, Walker is second on the team in scoring with an average of 11.1 points per game. He has cleared this scoring prop in three of his last four outings. For this four-star play, we like him to reach a dozen points against a Miami defense that is 246th at defending 2-point attempts this season.

Miami vs. Houston best odds

FanDuel (-118)

This line is available at only three of our five top-rated sportsbooks, and they are mostly in agreement on the pricing. FanDuel offers the slightest discount, which is why we are playing this pick here.

That said, this line is playable up to -130 or better before we’d consider passing on this prop at 11.5 points. The Cougars can sometimes struggle to score, but we believe Walker has enough mismatches for them to exploit against the Hurricanes.

Miami vs. Houston odds analysis

Houston opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but now bettors have to lay -7 with the favorite. The total is sitting at 138.5 after opening at 139.5 when betting lines were first released earlier in the week.

The Hurricanes are 20-14 against the spread and 18-15-1 to the Under so far this season. The Cougars have a 19-17 ATS clip with a 19-16-1 record to the Under.