Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball predictions & odds: Saturday, 2/25

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We’re less than two weeks from the start of the Big Ten Conference Tournament, and these two teams are still jostling for seeding. Michigan State is 9-7 in conference play, just a game back in the win column of three 10-7 teams.

After losing on Wednesday, Iowa is still in the mix at 9-8. This is a huge game for seeding purposes, as many teams are vying for one of the coveted top-four seeds. Seeds #1 through #4 will receive double-byes in the conference tournament.

Iowa’s hopes of finishing in the top four would be all but over with a loss, while Michigan State’s chances would be in good shape entering the final week of the regular season. Our experts have Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball predictions for this game, including the best bet with odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. We will also provide details on the current BetMGM promo worth up to $1,000.

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This is the second meeting between Michigan State and Iowa this season, with the Spartans winning the game in East Lansing by two points. Neither team played particularly well on the offensive end, as Michigan State won despite only scoring 0.95 points per possession. This is surprising from the Iowa side, as the Hawkeyes rank ninth nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

This time Iowa will be at home, where they have lost just once in conference play. Our experts’ Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball predictions have Iowa -4 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook) as their best bet.

Situationally, this sets up as a good spot in favor of Iowa. The Hawkeyes have lost their last two games, but both of those came on the road. It’s been extremely difficult to win on the road in the Big Ten this season, as home teams are currently 78-38 in conference play. Michigan State is coming off of an emotional win at home in their last game against Indiana.

As mentioned above, Iowa has been good at home during conference play, with their lone loss coming in overtime to Wisconsin in the first game of the Big Ten season. They’ve been equally poor on the road, as they rank dead-last in the country in Haslametrics’ Away from Home metric. Iowa will have the advantage simply by playing in its own gym.

From a matchup perspective, Iowa’s offense could find some success in transition. Per Synergy, Iowa plays in transition at a top-50 rate in the country. Michigan State’s defense has been excellent this season, ranking 26th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven’t been bad at defending in transition, but they only rank in the 65th percentile in transition defense, per Synergy.

On the other end, Iowa’s defense is not very good, which is a common theme under Fran McCaffery. However, their press defense could be effective against Michigan State. Iowa is pressing at a top-60 rate this season, and the Spartans rank in just the 17th percentile against press defense this season.

Look for Iowa to get back on track and cover the short spread at home. Our experts are betting Iowa -4 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook) as part of their Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball predictions.

Our experts like the Hawkeyes to cover in their Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball predictions. If you’d like to fade or follow that pick, BetMGM is the best place to do it if you today. As part of their current promo, all new BetMGM users are eligible to receive up to $1,000 in bonus bets if their first bet loses.

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At the time of writing, BetMGM Sportsbook has Iowa as a -4 favorite at home, which means Michigan State is the +4. Both sides of the point spread have odds of -110, which means an $11 wager on Iowa profits $10 if they win the game by at least five points. If Michigan State loses by four or less or wins the game outright, an $11 wager would also profit $10.

If you’d prefer to bet on the game total (over/under) instead, FanDuel has that set at 146,5 with -110 odds on each side.

Our experts’ Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball predictions have Iowa -4 as their best bet. Use this link to create your new BetMGM account today. As long as you join via our link, you are eligible for up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

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