Michigan vs. Iowa: Odds, predictions, props and best bets
Following an exciting regular-season finale last week, the Big 10 stands ready to crown either Michigan or Iowa as its 2023 conference champion. The No. 2 ranked Wolverines enter following an impressive 30-24 victory over Ohio State, while the No. 16 ranked Hawkeyes look to play spoiler following a 13-10 win over Nebraska.
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Sportsbooks heavily favor Michigan in this matchup, setting the spread between 22 and 24 points. Odds and lines above for the Big 10 Championship game courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
Michigan dispatched their archrivals, the Buckeyes, to earn a third-straight appearance in the Big 10 Championship game. The team welcomes head coach Jim Harbaugh back to the sideline after serving his three-game suspension.
A win over Iowa likely lands the Wolverines a top-two spot in the final College Football Playoff rankings, and Michigan will seek to become national champions.
The reason for the public’s confidence comes from Michigan’s elite units. The Wolverines’ offense put up 30 points on a stout OSU defense last week, marking the 11th time this season Michigan hit that threshold. Michigan’s 37.6 points per game ranks 10th-most in the country.
Perhaps more impressive is the Wolverines defense. Michigan stands first in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 points per game. The Wolverines have forced 21 turnovers this season, including 16 interceptions. They’ll face an Iowa offense that has struggled to consistently score this season and fired its offensive coordinator midseason.
Iowa punched its ticket to the Big 10 title game after clinching the program’s third Big 10 West Division crown under head coach Kirk Ferentz. However, the Hawkeyes enter Saturday’s game 0-2 in previous Big 10 Championship games.
Iowa’s calling card this season remains its defense, which has allowed just 12.2 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the FBS. Iowa ranks second in yards per play allowed, surrendering just 3.9. The defense forced 15 total turnovers, including 10 interceptions.
But for as strong as Iowa’s defense has been, the program’s offensive unit has been a weakness. The Hawkeyes averaged just 18 points per game this season, ranking 121st in the country. The passing attack lagged, ranking 127th after posting 123.4 passing yards per game.
Despite the offensive struggles, Iowa’s defense and elite special teams units are what could keep them in this game. The Hawkeyes feature excellent players along both lines, so they should hold their own in the trenches.
The Hawkeyes have a stellar defense, but it’s hard to put these two teams in the same realm. The Hawkeyes’ big losses come 54-10 to Ohio State and 31-0 to Penn State. Michigan beat both those teams.
When you compare opponents, Iowa won 13-10 to Minnesota while Michigan won 52-10. While Iowa has played well this season, Michigan is battle-tested against some of the best. The Wolverines should take this game handily and we like the 2-to-1 odds for this bet.
Inverse to the odds above, we like this Deacon Hill prop bet. As mentioned above, Iowa’s offense is its weak point. Since becoming the starter, Hill has six interceptions in eight games.
The Wolverines are the best defense in the country and it wouldn’t be surprising if they add on interception No. 17 (and maybe even No. 18) in the Big 10 title game tomorrow.
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