Michigan vs. Iowa prediction: Big Ten Championship odds, picks, bets

Aren’t you happy the Big Ten is eliminating divisions next year? 

We can finally avoid the Big Ten East champion laying 23 points against the Big Ten West champion in a game where the total sits under 36.

Alas, for one final season, Michigan will battle Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game as 23-point favorites with a 35.5-point total. 

Despite a non-functioning offense, the Hawkeyes won 10 games this season by relying almost entirely on defense and special teams. 

Meanwhile, Michigan is on top of the world, as the Wolverines just downed Ohio State for the third consecutive season to essentially secure a College Football Playoff spot. 

How do we even bet on this game? 

Let’s try to break this one down. 

Iowa’s defense doesn’t have a weakness. There is no particular area that the Wolverines can attack.

That said, Iowa’s defense might be a tad overvalued. 

The Hawkeyes haven’t played anybody. Their non-conference schedule consisted of Utah State, Western Michigan and Iowa State — in the wake of the betting scandal — and the Big Ten West was a joke this season.

In fact, Iowa has played only one ranked opponent this season in Penn State.

In that game, the Nittany Lions generated 31 points and 400 yards of total offense. Drew Allar threw for four scores, and the rushing attack tallied more than 200 yards.

To be fair, Penn State also benefited from four Iowa turnovers, including one that gave the Nittany Lions a short field. 

That said, Iowa allowed more than 30 points to the only competent offense it’s faced all year.

If Penn State can put up those numbers against Iowa, Michigan definitely can.

The Nittany Lions proved to be an inexplosive, useless offense against Michigan (15 points) and Ohio State (12 points), two defenses worse than Iowa’s on paper. 

The Wolverines are not an inexplosive, useless offense. They’re dynamic and can beat good defenses in several ways.

To be fair, I’m a bit worried about Michigan without offensive lineman Zak Zinter, who is out for the remainder of the year after suffering a brutal leg injury last week. 

It’s a huge loss. He was an All-Big Ten first-team right guard last year. 

Can backup right guard Jeffrey Persi provide the same type of interior push in the run game? 

That’s crucial because J.J. McCarthy hasn’t looked like himself over the past few weeks. 

Over the past three weeks, McCarthy has thrown for only 350 yards at only 6.8 yards per attempt. Before the Penn State game in Week 10, McCarthy averaged over 10 yards per attempt. 

With McCarthy struggling, Michigan has gone back to its ground-and-pound identity. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have combined for 450 rush yards on 107 attempts over the past three weeks. 

So, can Corum and Co. still eat without Zinter clearing holes? 

I think so.

Offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Sherrone Moore – acting head coach during Jim Harbaugh’s suspension – is among the nation’s best in his role. He’s coached up back-to-back Joe Moore award-winning lines, and he’ll have Persi coached up for this matchup. 

Not to mention, the other four offensive line starters are still killers. 

In its Week 4 matchup against Iowa, Penn State posted a positive EPA per Rush and EPA per Pass mark with a 45 percent Success Rate despite Allar throwing for only 166 yards. 

Michigan can do the same thing. 

I have no idea if Iowa will score. The Hawkeyes are such a high-variance attack because their offense relies heavily on the defense and special teams setting them up with good field position. McCarthy has improved at caring for the ball as he’s matured, but he can still be turnover-prone, which worries me. 

Regardless, I think Michigan has a similar offensive performance against Iowa as Penn State did, if not better. 

So, my best bet for this game is Michigan’s Team Total Over 28.5 points (-120) at DraftKings. 

If McCarthy doesn’t make any mistakes – and after recording zero turnover-worthy plays in nine of his 13 starts this year, I don’t expect him to – he doesn’t have to do too much for his Wolverines to generate scores against Iowa.

Corum and Edwards should feast here, just as Penn State’s backs did. 

For what it’s worth, Corum has 207 yards on 34 lifetime attempts against Iowa, generating more than six yards per carry. 

Michigan scored 27 against Iowa last year and 42 in this game two seasons ago, so I have faith in this wager. 

Michigan Team Total Over 28.5 Points (-110) at DraftKings | Play to 29.5 (-110)