Michigan vs Ohio St Prediction, Preview, Betting Odds, Picks

It's the Game of the Year in the Big Ten Saturday when hated rivals the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes face off with a conference title and potential spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. Michigan is a 3.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook with the total set at 46.5.

This game marks just the second time since 2011 that Michigan is favorite over Ohio State. The Wolverines were favored by 3.5 on the road in 2018 but the Buckeyes cruised to an easy 62-39 win. The early number in this game was Michigan -5.5 at Caesars Sportsbook but initial money on the Buckeyes moved it down to 3.5 as of Friday evening. 

Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds

Michigan Wolverines -3.5 (-105)/Ohio State +3.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Michigan -165/Ohio State +140

Total: 46.5 points

Michigan vs. Ohio State Preview

This series was dominated by Ohio State until recently. Michigan has taken the last two over the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-50. Right or wrong, a third straight loss and Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will be feeling the heat from the Buckeyes fanbase and boosters. 

Michigan's head coach isn't on the hot seat but he has his own issues right now. Jim Harbaugh won't be on the sidelines Saturday while serving a three-game suspension over the sign-stealing fiasco. Michigan didn't miss Harbaugh in wins over Maryland and Penn State. However, those are the only two games this season where the Wolverines won by fewer than 10 points. 

This is basically a playoff game and Harbaugh not being on the sidelines for such a big matchup has to be a little bit of a factor. Harbaugh or no Harbaugh though, the game will likely come down to which offense can move the ball on the opposing defense and limit turnovers. These are two of the top defensive units in the country with Michigan ranking No. 1 and Ohio State No. 3. 

I bet Michigan to win the Big Ten at +210 when odds were released over the summer. I thought this was the first time in a decade the Wolverines had more talent than Ohio State.

I still believe that but the best player on the field will be Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison's receiving prop at Caesars Sportsbook is 87.5. Win or lose, look for Harrison Jr. to have a big game. He went for 120 yards last season in Michigan's 45-23 victory. 

Michigan vs. Ohio State Picks

Michigan/Ohio St over 46.5

Marvin Harrison Jr. over 87.5 receiving yards

An interesting trend in this series is the over has hit in nine straight meetings, despite both teams usually having strong defenses. One theory I have is the defenses are a bit overrated because they play bad Big Ten offenses all year. I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Both defenses are really good but 46.5 feels a little low and I expect both offenses to be aggressive early. 

My favorite bet is Harrison Jr. over 87.5 receiving yards. Michigan plays a lot of man defense and that favors Harrison Jr. I expect him to be heavily involved in the gameplan and that should produce a big play or two. He's gone over this number in seven of 11 games.