Ohio State vs. Michigan Prediction, Preview, and Odds
We have the biggest game of the year on Saturday as No. 2 Ohio State (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 8-0 B10) takes on No. 3 Michigan (11-0 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 8-0 B10) on Saturday from Ann Arbor, Mich. in the Big House at Michigan Stadium.
Forget even last season, or the last two, where Michigan dominated. The winner of this one is going to the Big Ten title game, thus winning the Big 10 East. They are almost automatically getting a ticket to the College Football Playoffs. This is also THE rivalry in college football.
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Consistency
Ohio State has taken care of business in every game this season. Whether it's winning with defense, offense or a team effort. In their last two wins over Michigan State (38-3) and Minnesota (37-3), it was just about sheer domination. In their last win over Minnesota last Saturday, they held the Gophers to just 159 total yards. Treyvon Henderson led the way with 146 yards rushing and two TDs for the Buckeyes. He did that in less than three quarters because Ohio State was able to rest their starters in the fourth quarter.
The main issue for Ohio State has been their offense. Their defense dominated their game against Minnesota, but the offense put up just 13 points in the first half while the defense shut out the Golden Gophers. QB Kyle McCord completed 20 of 30 for 212 yards with two TDs. Star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was held to three catches for 30 yards, but also had a receiving touchdown.
McCord is having a good season, completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,899 yards with 22 TDs and four INTs. He's just not the running threat of previous OSU quarterbacks with -62 yards. Henderson leads the Buckeyes with 794 yards rushing and 10 TDs (6.7ypc). Harrison Jr. adds 62 catches for 1,093 yars with 13 TDs (17.6ypc) despite seeing all sorts of attention.
Overall, the Buckeyes' defense is their strength. They allow just 252.9 yards per game (3rd) with 144.4 passing yards (1st), 198.5 rushing yards (21st) and 9.3 points per game (2nd). On offense, they average 429.3 yards per game (35th), on 283.7 yards per game in the air and just 145.5 rushing yards (86th).
Winning without Harbaugh
In their second game without the suspended Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines, Michigan had a bit of trouble, but found a way to beat Maryland on the road last week 31-24 as a 17.5-point favorite. Defensive back Mike Sainristil intercepted two passes and running back Blake Corum scored twice in the first half. The Wolverines' defense held the Terps to just 15 yards rushing, but Maryland made it a game with 247 passing yards. Michigan also struggled with its passing game as J.J. McCarthy completed just 12 of 23 for 141 yards and a pick.
Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore takes over the head coaching duties and already passed a tough test when his Wolverines beat Penn State 24-15 on Nov. 11 on the road. Moore will handle sideline duties, but this is still Harbaugh's team and he'll run practice during the week. He's going to need a strong game from McCarthy, who has completed 73.8% of his passes for 2,335 yards with 18 TDs and just four picks. Running back Blake Corum (4.9ypc) is the star of the offense with 888 yards and 20 touchdowns. WR Roman Wilson leads the team with 37 catches for 612 yards and 10 TDs.
The Wolverines lead the nation in yards allowed with 235.5 per game and points given up (9ppg), and rank second in passing yards allow 144.8 rushing yards per game (9th). On offense, they are averaging 399.6 yards per game and 228.6 passing yards (171 rushing yards). They rank 11th in points per game with 38.3ppg.
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Michigan may have been overlooking Maryland, but that's not a good sign. No matter what they've done in the last two years, this is a different Ohio State team. The only team they struggled with was Notre Dame and that was early in the season on the road. McCarthy has been struggling the last couple of weeks and Ohio State is very tough to run on. So, relying on Corum is not going to win the Wolverines the game. Ohio State has a much better passing game and I see them taking advantage in the air with Marvin Harrison Jr. in the cold weather, which these teams are used to playing in. I expect this to be a very close game and even if Ohio State loses, it will be less than three points.
Prediction: Ohio State +3.5
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You have two great defenses and offenses that want to run the ball in cold weather. Neither team is going to be able to run the ball consistently on the other. Michigan ranks in the top 10 in nearly every defensive category. The Buckeyes rank first against the pass so expect them to force McCarthy in some tough throws. Ohio State has been an under team all year, going 7-1 in their last eight. They allowed just 51 points over their last six games.
Prediction: Under 46
Ben has been a sports writer for over 35 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for nearly 30 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13! Ben has had great success in handicapping college football, the NFL, college basketball, the NBA and MLB for 27+ years. His Twitter handle is @BenHayesWAW
