Minnesota vs. Iowa over/under tied for lowest college football total in past 20 years

For the second straight year, the Minnesota vs. Iowa over/under is setting records. Sportsbooks are dealing the total at , and if it closes at 31.5, it will match the number set for the same matchup a year ago. 

With the game set to kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, there's still time for it to move lower. 

As it stands as of Thursday morning, it’s the lowest pregame total in college football in the past 20 years, tied with two Iowa games in 2022 – the matchup against the Gophers and last season's Music City Bowl vs. Kentucky.

If you’re wondering how to bet it, both games from a year ago finished safely Under.

Minnesota vs. Iowa odds include record-setting total

Here are the latest odds for the Minnesota vs. Iowa Big 10 East matchup:

The total opened at 32.5, but has bet down a point throughout the week. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Under has cashed in five of Iowa’s seven games this season, and only two of those totals have been higher than 38.5.

Minnesota has played to the Over in each of its past three, with Michigan hitting it by itself in the Gophers latest game.

Elite defense, bad offense lead to low-scoring Iowa games, points clause for Brian Ferentz

This total likely has more to do with Iowa than Minnesota, though. The Hawkeyes are 10th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 14.9 points per game. But outside of a 31-0 loss against Penn State, no team has scored more than 16 points against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes offense doesn’t exactly threaten totals, either. Iowa is 112th nationally in scoring offense at 20.9 points per game.

This is nothing new. Iowa’s offense has been so famously bad for years that coach Kirk Ferentz added a points clause to the contract for his son Brian – the Hawkeye’s offensive coordinator. Iowa must average 25 points per game (including a bowl game) for Brian to keep his job. He’s currently below that pace.

The Gophers offense doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, either. They’ve been held to 10 (Michigan), 13 (North Carolina) and 13 (Nebraska) points against their three toughest opponents, and North Carolina isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut.

Should you bet Over or Under in Minnesota vs. Iowa?

If you want to make a game with a total of 31.5 thrilling, you bet the Under. The adrenaline might be the only thing to keep you awake during the game.

But is it smart? Analytics actually say no. 

Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the game finishing at 22-15, a relative shootout for the Hawkeyes that would hit the Over. 

As bad as these offenses are, defensive and special teams scores also count toward the total. Iowa’s defense and special teams have found the endzone twice this season, and forced a pair of safeties.

Minnesota’s defense hasn’t scored, but in the Gophers’ last outing against Michigan, they gave up a pair of pick-sixes to the Wolverines. 

All of that is to say betting a total that low doesn’t leave much room for surprises. 

But based on vibes and fun? Yeah, take it – maybe just use a bonus bet.