Minnesota Gopher Football Bowl Projections: September 13

247Sports- Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit, MI) vs. Central Michigan

ESPN (Kyle Bonagura)- Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV) vs. Utah

ESPN (Mark Schlabach)- Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix, AZ) vs. TCU

CBS Sports- Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN) vs. Arkansas

USA Today- Music City Bowl vs. Mississippi State

Athlon- Music City Bowl vs. Arkansas

Action Network- Music City Bowl vs. LSU

CFP Semifinal - Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA) - Michigan vs. USC

Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, FL) - Penn State vs. Duke

Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA) - Iowa vs. Tulane

Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL) - Ohio State vs. Alabama

Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV) - Maryland vs. Colorado

Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN) - Minnesota vs. Ole Miss

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix, AZ) -Rutgers vs. TCU

Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit, MI) -Illinois vs. Ohio

Ohio State Out of the New Year's Six?

Two weeks into the season is still early to start making judgements on teams, but some preseason fears I held about the Buckeyes QB situation have only grown. Ohio State has long ruled the Big Ten, which makes it effectively a default pick to put the Buckeyes into a New Year's Six game, if not one of the two playoff semifinals. In fact, the Buckeyes have never failed to make a NY6 game since the dawn of the CFP era in college football. So perhaps it's too bold a projection to have Ohio State in the non-NY6 Citrus Bowl.

But as it stands, the Buckeyes quarterback situation may drag the team down a bit. Heading into week three, they have named Kyle McCord their starting quarterback, but his play thus far against Indiana and Youngstown State, hardly quality opposition, hasn't been to the usual Ohio State standard. The Buckeyes are still chock full of talent, but a step back from their norm at QB could leave the vulnerable against top end teams.

Ultimately, as I look at Ohio State's schedule, it's a QB comparison that has me doubting them. Notre Dame, their marquee non-conference opponent, looks to be best Fighting Irish team in recent memory with transfer QB Sam Hartman. I believe Penn State finally has a QB that can elevate their program in youngster Drew Allar. And Michigan, with JJ McCarthy under center, has seemed to move ahead of their archnemesis.

Based on the first two weeks of play, I've updated my picks and have Ohio State losing to all three of those opponents. If that happens, the Buckeyes would be, at best, looking at a 9-3 record, likely without any particularly impressive win. Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota could all make for decent wins, but I'm not sure any of them rise to the level that Ohio State would need to be the rare 9-3 NY6 team, even if the perception of the Ohio State brand plus a quality schedule will help bolster their case a bit.

Iowa Walking Into A NY6 Game?

Alongside dropping Ohio State down to the Citrus Bowl, the other major change I made from my preseason rankings was bumping Iowa into the New Year's Six games. It's not a prediction that I felt very comfortable making, as Iowa's offense has barely looked improved with Cade McNamara under center this season. However, Iowa's defense looks as opportunistic as ever, and that might just be all they need to carry their way to a solid season.

While the offense may still leave something to be desired, the Hawkeyes have a very favorable schedule. A week 4 date with Penn State in Happy Valley is expected to be a loss, but their other cross over games are against a Michigan State team that's now without a head coach and Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights might be a sneaky pick to take down the Hawkeyes - their strong defense could keep the game tight, at which point the game could come down to whether or not the Hawkeyes can generate points with the defense. That was the winning formula for Illinois in their 9-6 win over Iowa last season, and Rutgers might just be the team that can surprise Iowa in a similar way. However, with the game at home in Iowa City, I'm currently sticking with the preseason projection of a win for the Hawkeyes.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten West is just as muddled and mediocre as it's been for the past few seasons. Illinois and Purdue both appear to be on the come down from peaking last season and seem ill-suited for an upset. Iowa hasn't managed to pick up a win in Madison since 2015, but given Wisconsin QB Tanner Mordecai's propensity to turn the ball over, I've flipped my prediction to favor the Hawkeyes for now.

And then there's Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Hawkeyes in PJ Fleck's tenure, nor have they won in Iowa City at all since 1999. It's difficult to pick against that history in a game that, at best, could generously be called a toss-up right now. Perhaps if Minnesota picks up a win over UNC this weekend, I could feel more comfortable flipping that pick, but as it stands right now, I can't bring myself to make that call.

Nevertheless, it's hard to envision Iowa getting through their schedule with only a loss to Penn State unless the Hawkeyes can make some marked improvement on offense. I'm struggling to place that second loss, though, and just about anywhere it could realistically go would have significant impacts on the bowl placements up and down the conference. So for now, I have Iowa at 11-1, but we'll see how long that projection lasts.

What To Watch This Weekend

The top game this week is Minnesota's showdown with North Carolina (2:30 PM CT on ESPN). A Gophers upset victory would help solidify Minnesota's case for one of the Big Ten's better bowl games, even if the conference loses its marquee spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl this year. The Gophers would firmly enter the conversation for the Las Vegas Bowl, and could even potentially see a Florida-based, post-New Year's bowl spot on offer. 

Beyond that, the other game that really catches my eye is Virginia Tech @ Rutgers (2:30 PM CT on BTN). I'm about as bullish on the Scarlet Knights as anyone, and this game will be a good test for Rutgers as they take on a Hokies squad that just lost at home to Purdue. Rutgers is a touchdown favorite, so I'm looking for Rutgers to take care of business against a Power 5 opponent who has seen better days.

Speaking of Purdue's win over Virginia Tech, that unexpected victory opened the door just a crack for the Boilermakers to make a bowl game. They'll tangle with Syracuse this weekend (6:30 PM CT on NBC). It's only week 3, so perhaps this is a bit premature, but this game feels like it's approaching must win territory if Purdue does hope to see a bowl game. Their Big Ten slate includes both Michigan and Ohio State as crossover opponents, so getting to the requisite 6 wins feels much more realistic if they only need 4 conference wins instead of 5.

Finally, I'll be keeping an eye on Washington taking on Michigan State (4 PM CT on Peacock). It's a game that's expected to be a blowout, which seems especially likely with the Spartans likely reeling from Mel Tucker's suspension this week. Michigan State has beaten up on two lesser opponents thus far, and while I wouldn't expect them to win regardless, I'll be curious to see if I've overly discounted their chances to pick up a win here or there in Big Ten play.