Mississippi State football predictions 2023: Our picks for Zach Arnett

STARKVILLE — Game week has arrived for Mississippi State football. The Bulldogs, led by first-year coach Zach Arnett, open the season Saturday against FCS foe Southeastern Louisiana (3 p.m., SEC Network).

This year features low expectations for MSU nationally. The Bulldogs were picked to finish last in the SEC West last month in the media poll. However, with returning talent on both sides of the ball – including senior quarterback Will Rogers and sixth-year linebackers Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson – Mississippi State believes it can have a year similar to last season’s nine-win schedule.

Mississippi State’s schedule features eight homes games compared to four away from Davis Wade Stadium. As Week 1 arrives, here are our game-by-game prediction for how the Bulldogs will fare this season.

Sept. 2: vs. Southeastern Louisiana

Last season: Did not play. SELA went 9-4.

The buzz: It’s an SEC school against an FCS school. MSU is implementing a new offense under coordinator Kevin Barbay, but there shouldn’t be much trouble in the opener.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 55-6.

Sept. 9: vs. Arizona

Last season: Mississippi State won 39-17 in Tucson.

The buzz: Here’s the first real test for Arnett, Barbay and Co. If there is any rust implementing the new offense, it’s likely to show against a Pac-12 foe.

The Bulldogs had no issue winning at Arizona last year in a late-night game, and they shouldn’t have trouble pulling out a win this year in Starkville. However, it’s important for MSU to work out any kinks before the schedule ramps up.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 31-17.

Sept. 16: vs. LSU

Last season: LSU won 31-16 in Baton Rouge.

The buzz: The series between the Tigers and Bulldogs, which stems back to the 1800s, has been dominated by LSU. However, the rivalry has featured more competitive games in recent years.

It’ll be a closer game this year than some expect, but I picked LSU to win the SEC West for a reason. The Tigers are good, and they’ll pick up the win in Starkville.

The pick: LSU wins 27-17.

Sept. 23: at South Carolina

Last season: Did not play. South Carolina went 8-5.

The buzz: The first road trip for Mississippi State is a tough one. South Carolina has a brutal September schedule, and Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks will view this as a must-win game.

If the Spencer Rattler from late last season shows up, it’ll be a rough night for the Bulldogs. I expect South Carolina to win.

The pick: South Carolina wins 24-20.

Sept. 30: vs. Alabama

Last season: Alabama won 30-6 in Tuscaloosa.

The buzz: If playing LSU and South Carolina in back-to-back weeks wasn’t enough, Mississippi State closes out a brutal three-game stretch against a team it hasn’t beaten since 2007.

Perhaps it’ll be a closer game than recent years, but I still don’t think Mississippi State has enough to end its skid against Alabama.

The pick: Alabama wins 26-17.

Oct. 7: vs. Western Michigan

Last season: Did not play. Western Michigan went 5-7.

The buzz: Mississippi State will end its three-game losing streak with a win against Western Michigan.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 38-10.

Oct. 21: at Arkansas

Last season: Mississippi State won 40-17 in Starkville.

The buzz: MSU got some help from the schedule in mid-October. The Bulldogs will be coming off a bye week as they head to Razorback Stadium. Meanwhile, Arkansas will be coming off a game at Alabama.

If not for kicking woes, Mississippi State would have won in Fayetteville two years ago. The Bulldogs responded with a big win in Starkville last year. I expect MSU’s veterans to come off the idle week and snatch a win.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 24-23.

Oct. 28: at Auburn

Last season: Mississippi State won 39-33 in Starkville.

The buzz: Back-to-back road games aren’t easy in the SEC, but there are a lot of questions about Auburn’s roster. Rogers has proven he can win at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and he’ll do it again this year.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 28-24.

Nov. 4: vs. Kentucky

Last season: Kentucky won 27-17 in Lexington.

The buzz: The home team has dominated this permanent crossover rivalry. That’ll be the case again as MSU takes the field in its 1998 throwback uniforms for homecoming weekend.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 28-21.

Nov. 11: at Texas A&M

Last season: Mississippi State won 42-24 in Starkville.

The buzz: Rogers has proven he can win at Texas A&M, but it’s tough to imagine Mississippi State goes 3-1 in its four SEC road games. The Aggies will pick up the win.

The pick: Texas A&M wins 27-20.

Nov. 18: vs. Southern Miss

Last season: Did not play. Southern Miss went 7-6.

The buzz: There was a time when Southern Miss dominated this in-state matchup. However, that won’t be the case in Starkville. Mississippi State should dominate at the line of scrimmage en route to a win before the Egg Bowl.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 34-10.

Nov. 23: vs. Ole Miss

Last season: Mississippi State won 24-22 in Oxford.

The buzz: I’ve picked the home team to win each of the last two Egg Bowls, and I’ve been wrong both times. I guess I’ll be right eventually.

The pick: Mississippi State wins 34-31.

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.