Mississippi State vs Tennessee Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Covers

15 March 2024

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Tennessee got its character loss out of the way, and at a site close to home with several metrics pointing in its favor, our college basketball picks are taking a Volunteer day against Mississippi State.

The No. 9 seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs face the No. 1 seed Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament bracket quarterfinals on Thursday afternoon. The Bulldogs upset the Volunteers earlier this season but it won't be easy to rack up another win against a Volunteers side that has the fourth-best March Madness odds to win the national title at +1,200.

Conference tournament odds have the Vols as 10.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 142.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for South Carolina vs. Auburn on March 15.

Mississippi State vs Tennessee best odds

Mississippi State vs Tennessee picks and predictions

The Tennessee Volunteers ended their season with a disappointing 85-81 home loss to Kentucky. That said, it was a bit of a letdown spot for them since they were coming off three consecutive wins against ranked opponents and had already wrapped up the SEC regular season title.

Sometimes it's good to get losses like that out of the way before tournament time, especially for a team with national title aspirations. The Volunteers also lost to Mississippi State on the road in their only meeting this season way back on January 10. That should ensure that the Vols don't overlook them this time, so expect a strong performance in a revenge spot.

During that first meeting, the Vols lost by just five points despite outliers in several key areas. They have an impressive 14.9% turnover rate and shoot 34.6% from deep this season but had a 21.9% TO rate with a 27.6 3PT% in that contest. The Vols also allowed the Bulldogs to shoot 58.8% from inside the arc, which is a far cry from their season long opponent two-point percentage of 43.6% that ranks fifth in the country.

That Vols defense has generally been dominant this season and they rank third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. They have the second-best defense in the country against shots attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets and they clog up the paint, forcing opponents to shoot from the perimeter.

The Bulldogs don't have the outside shooting to unlock that stingy Tennessee stop unit. They also turn the ball over at the worst rate in the SEC (18.7%) while the Vols have the highest opponent turnover rate (18.5%).

On the other side of the floor the Bulldogs are solid in some areas but they get burned inside the arc with the second-worst opponent two-point percentage (53.9%) in the conference. While they have better numbers against the 3-ball, ShotQualityBets has them ranked as one of the worst teams in the country at allowing high quality threes — so regression might be on the horizon.

It's also worth mentioning that Tennessee was incredible at home during the regular season, going 14-2 SU and 10-5-1 ATS with an average scoring margin of +19.8 ppg. While this contest is taking place at a neutral site, it could feel like a home game with the Nashville venue filled with plenty of in-state Vol fans.

My best bet: Tennessee -10 (-112 at DraftKings)

Mississippi State vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Tennessee -10

Dalton Knecht Over 2.5 threes made

Tolu Smith Over 13.5 points

The Vols actually got excellent performances from their two best players in that first meeting, with Dalton Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combining for 54 points on 57.6% shooting. It was the supporting cast that let them down by scoring just 18 points on 30.8 FG%.

Knecht was just named SEC Player of the Year and he's averaged 26.5 ppg on 48/43/74 shooting splits since that Jan. 10 clash with Mississippi State. He went 4-9 from deep in that contest and he has knocked down more than 2.5 treys in five of his last six games.

Mississippi State center Tolu Smith also balled out in that previous meeting, dropping 23 points. Smith averages 16.3 ppg on 58.6 FG% and the powerful big man had his way with Tennessee's Jonas Aidoo down low.

Aidoo struggles against bigger and physical opponents, which we've seen in games against Zach Edey, Hunter Dickinson, and Armando Bacot. Smith isn't quite on their level but his points total is still too low here. Especially since head coach Chris Jans will likely try to run the offense through him again since they had so much success with that recipe the first time out.

Best college basketball bonuses

Purdue, Tennessee, South Florida all win
-105 BOOSTED to +115! Claim Now

50% boost for one CBB bet
e.g. +100 boosts to +150! Claim Now

Mississippi State vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with Tennessee at -9.5 and the Vols were immediately hammered at that number, bringing it to -10.5. The total opened at 141.5 and hasn't seen movement as of 9 a.m. ET.

Tennessee ended the regular season with a loss to Kentucky but had gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its previous seven games.

The Vols also had an elite defense last year but an inefficient offense led to an early exit from the NCAA Tournament. This season, they rank 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency thanks in large part to Knecht, who transferred from Northern Colorado.

The Bulldogs trailed LSU by seven points at halftime yesterday but rallied after the break to win 70-60 and cover as 4.5-point faves. That was a much-needed victory after they went 0-4 SU and ATS to close out the regular season.

The Bulldogs went 12-2 during the non-conference part of their schedule but went just 8-10 SU and 7-11 ATS during their SEC slate.

Mississippi State vs Tennessee betting trend to know

Since that upset win against the Volunteers, the Bulldogs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.