College Basketball Odds: Tennessee-Mississippi State prediction, pick, how to watch

The No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers (14-3) visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-5) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Tennessee-Mississippi State prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Tennessee’s coming off a home loss to Kentucky but had won their five previous games and sits at 4-1 and tied for third place in the SEC. The Volunteers covered 53% of their games while 65% went under the projected point total. Mississippi State has lost five of its last six games and sits at 1-4 and tied for 11th place in the SEC.  The Bulldogs covered 44% of their games while 59% went under. Tennessee has won each of the last four meetings between the teams dating back to 2021. They most recently played earlier this month when Tennessee won by 34.

Here are the Tennessee-Mississippi State college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Tennessee-Mississippi State Odds

Tennessee: -5.5 (-115)

Mississippi State: +5.5 (-105)

Over: 122.5 (-110)

Under: 122.5 (-110)

How To Watch Tennessee vs. Mississippi State

TV: ESPN2

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Tennessee Could Cover The Spread

Despite Tennessee having just lost at home to a putrid Kentucky team, the Volunteers remain with one of the most impressive resumes in the country. Tennessee ranks No. 2 in KenPom and No. 2 in NET. They compiled a 6-3 record in Quad 1 and 2 matchups while maintaining a perfect 8-0 record against Quad 3 and 4. Tennessee is currently projected to be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee’s best chance of covering tonight comes thanks to their elite defense. The Volunteers rank second in points allowed (54 Opp. PPG). They hold opponents to the lowest field goal percentage in the country (34% Opp. FG%) and the lowest three-point percentage (21% Opp. 3P%). Tennessee is also one of the best rebounding teams in the country as they rank seventh in rebound rate and 15th in total rebounds (39.6 RPG).

Offensively, the Volunteers are a solid unit that ranks 80th in scoring (74.4 PPG). They do a great job sharing the ball, however, ranking eighth in assists (18 APG). That speaks to their well-rounded offensive attack as six players average at least 8.4 PPG. Tennessee is led by senior guard Santiago Vescovi who averages 12.9 PPG and 2.7 threes per game. Vescovi led the team with 14 points in their earlier win over Mississippi State thanks to draining four triples.

Senior forward Oliver Nkamhoua is right behind Vescovi as he averages 11.1 PPG and 4.8 RPG. The Finnish forward is highly efficient as he shoots 59% overall. He’s even expanded his range and is good for a three-point attempt per game at a 37% clip.

Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread

After starting 11-0, Mississippi State lost five of six games and has a lot of work to do if they want to play themselves back into the tournament picture. The Bulldogs still fare well in the advanced metrics as they rank No. 53 in KenPom and No. 54 in NET. Their record is boosted by a perfect 10-0 record in Quad 3 and 4 matchups but they’ve gone just 2-5 in Quad 1 and 2 games.

Like their opponents tonight, Mississippi State’s best path to covering comes on the defensive end. They gave up 87 points in their previous meeting with Tennessee – by far the most they’ve given up all season. That being said, the Bulldogs remain an excellent defensive team. They rank fifth in points allowed (57.5 Opp. PPG) and hold opponents to the 11th-lowest shooting percentage in the country (39% Opp. PPG). Mississippi State forces a turnover at the 11th-highest rate in the league (21%).

While they will have to slow down Tennessee’s offensive attack, Mississippi State is going to have to find a way to score against the Volunteers’ defense. That starts with senior Tolu Smith. The 6’11 forward leads the team in both scoring (14 PPG) and rebounding (7.8 RPG) while shooting a stellar 59% from the floor. He was limited to just nine points and two rebounds in their earlier meeting but has since rebounded nicely. Smith is coming off one of his best games of the season – a 20-point, 10-rebound performance against Auburn. A three-year starter for the Bulldogs, Smith provides a stable source of offensive production and will surely be looking to bounce back after his poor showing earlier this month.

Final Tennessee-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Tennessee crushed Mississippi State on their home floor earlier this month and I don’t see much changing here tonight. The Bulldogs could keep things close in the first half but the Volunteers should be able to cover 5.5 with ease tonight.

Final Tennessee-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Tennessee -5.5 (-115)