Missouri vs. Ohio State Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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Since January 1, 1937, the Cotton Bowl has been an annual college football event from the great state of Texas. It was originally played at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas but has since moved to the Cowboy’s AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The 88th version of the Cotton Bowl pits the 7th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes of the BIG10 against the 9th-ranked Missouri Tigers of the SEC. The Tigers achieved their first top-10 finish in over a decade and will be facing the Buckeyes for the first time since 1998. The line for this game opened with the Buckeyes favored by 2.5 and has since moved a point to a 1.5 number with a total of 49. Kick-off is set for 7 PM CST, December 29.
Tiger's Missing Key Defensive Pieces for Cotton Bowl
The Missouri Tigers come into the Cotton Bowl touting a 10-2 record. Their 2 losses on the season were to LSU in October and to Georgia 30-21 at the beginning of November. Since their loss to the Dawgs, Missouri won their next 3 including defeating 13-ranked Tennessee and the Florida Gators.
The Tiger’s offense will be intact for the game but they will miss two key players from the defensive side of the ball. Both cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper will be out of the game due to injury/nfl draft considerations. Hopper is a tough blow for the defensive squad as he is the second-leading tackler for the Tigers. Hopper missed the game against Florida and the Gators racked up 500 yards, which is the second most the Tigers allowed all season.
The Tiger’s offense, led by junior QB Brady Cook, averages 441 yards per game split between 169 rushing and 272 through the air. Cook completes his passes 66.4% of the time, throwing for 3189 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just 6 picks. Sophomore receiver Luther Burden III leads the way with an impressive 1197 yards on the season on 83 receptions. The 6-2 Theo Wease Jr. gives some height to the receiver corps. and has brought down 45 receptions himself. The Tiger’s dynamic running game features senior running back Cody Schrader. The 5-9, 219-pounder has bullied his way to a 4th-ranked 1489 yards on the ground and 13 touchdowns.
The Tigers score 34 points per game while allowing 22. Their defense typically allows 347 yards split between 222 passing and 124 on the ground. Impressively, the defensive group consistently applies pressure to opponent’s QBs and averages a 12th-ranked 3 sacks per game led by senior defensive lineman Darius Robinson and his 7.5 sacks on the season. Additionally, the offense converts their 3rd downs 43.3% of the time while the defense allows a 40.5% rate. The field goal team has kicked the 5th most 3-pointers with 24 and the 4th most attempts with 30.
Ohio State to Feature QB2 Devin Brown
The Ohio State Buckeyes were putting together a great season during their first 11 weeks going a perfect 11-0 while achieving a national rank of 2. Then they faced off against the #3 Michigan Wolverines in week 12, losing the game and changing the course of their season. In that game, Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy played a perfect game for the Wolverines carrying them to 30-24 win over Ohio State. The loss dropped the Buckeyes to #7 and out of the National Championship Playoffs. Ohio State’s QB1 Kyle McCord threw two picks in the game which was one of the deciding factors in the difference. Since then, and due to a lack of commitment from head coach Ryan Day, the junior quarterback entered the transfer portal and is joining the Syracuse Orangemen where he has ties with many of the coaches. McCord offered that he wanted to go “somewhere he would be truly appreciated.” McCord completed his passes 65.8% of the time for 3776 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Sophomore QB Devin Brown will lead the Buckeyes in this game having connected 12 of 22 passes for 197 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in limited play this season. Brown was in direct competition for the starting role with McCord before he injured his finger and missed the final four practices including the Spring Game.
Except McCord, the Buckeye’s key players will play in the Cotton Bowl despite NFL draft considerations demonstrating a great and rare allegiance to their teammates. Coach Ryan Day stated, “Everyone’s going to be here.” This means that QB Brown will have at his disposal two great pass catchers in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Cade Stover plus his star running back TreVeyon Henderson. Harrison Jr.’s 1211 receiving yards are 9th in the nation while his 14 touchdowns are tied for third. Impressively, Harrison Jr. is the first receiver in school history to achieve 2 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. The junior back TreVeyon Henderson ran for 854 yards, averaging 6.2 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Ohio State averaged 32.8 points per game and only allowed a 2-ranked 11 points per game. The squad netted 425 yards while only allowing 260. Impressively, the defense was 1 in the country against the pass only allowing 147.5 yards per game with a 52.2% conversion rate while giving up 112 on the ground. Additionally, their efficiency numbers are some of the best, converting 46% of their third downs while allowing their opponents a #2 ranked 26.8%. When needed, they have kicked their field goals true 15 of 18 times.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
This line of 1.5 is an overreaction to the fact that Ohio State will be starting their QB2 in this spot. For example, against Georgia, the Tigers were 14-point dogs, and against LSU they were getting 6.5 points. The fact that Missouri is 8-4 against the spread, including a 5 of 6 run, adds to the over value in this spot. Importantly, the Buckeyes still feature their star running back against a Missouri defense that is missing key components and allows 169 yards per game on the ground. In the game against Florida, where Missouri was missing the same players, the Tigers allowed 261 yards on the ground.
Ohio State’s QB Devin Brown knows this is a try-out for the Buckeyes next season and will be dialed in and ready to utilize his stable of star receivers plus top tight end Stover as a release valve. Even-so, look for the Buckeyes to attack Missouri on the ground where the Tigers have demonstrated distinct holes over the last couple of games.
The 21 points that Georgia allowed to Missouri was the Tigers lowest scoring total of the year. Ohio State will look to duplicate that. Their 26.8% 3rd down conversion allowed rate is just one of many shining examples of their defensive excellence. Defense wins bowl games and that is what will happen here. Ohio State ML -120.
Prediction: Ohio State ML
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Both teams haven’t played in over a month so look for the running game to be key to start the game while the passing game gets back up to speed. Additionally, Ohio State features the top defense against the pass this season only allowing 147 yards per game and keeping opposing QBs to a 4th ranked 52.2% completion rate. Furthermore, though Devin Brown will get some opportunities, Ohio State will focus on their ground attack to control the game. Both teams utilizing their ground game for these reasons will keep the clock running thus shortening the game.
The total of 49 is set up for an SEC-style game that features plenty of scoring from both sides. However, given the necessity for both sides to focus on their rushing attacks, this will take on the characteristics more of a BIG10-style game. Don’t forget Ohio State has only allowed an average of 11 points a game this season. Missouri’s D has been decent themselves allowing only 22. The 49 is too much. Play the under.
Prediction: Under 49
I am Mike Clark, the WestCoastCapper. I have specialized in the west coast sports market for over two decades. Reigning from Las Vegas, I broke into this industry in the smokey, glitzy atmosphere of the beloved and never forgotten Stardust Sportsbook on the Las Vegas strip. It is there that I hit my first 5-dime wager and had my name on the board as a handicapper. I derive my sports investing philosophy from my background in the world of finance. Investing on sports is very similar to investing in securities. You need to know how to minimize your risk and find value where value lies. Did you know the sportsbooks need winners? That’s right, every game, ideally, the book wants 50% of the action to win. This minimizes their risk and guarantees they’ll be cashing in through the vig. With that in mind we take Technical Analysis, (Stats), fundamental Analysis (Coaching, Chemistry, History), and Environmental Analysis (Weather, Schedule, Situations) and put it all together into an entourage of winning information. There is no shortcut. You have to breathe it, live it, and most of all, have the insider’s edge to make it in this tough industry. I am here to help you on your way!
