MLB Futures: Odds To Win 2023 World Series

After a frenetic offseason that saw numerous star players change uniforms and teams invest billions of dollars in free agents to upgrade their rosters, the dust has settled. We have a good sense of where teams stand heading into the 2023 MLB season.

That makes it a viable time to make 2023 MLB futures bets, as we can reasonably forecast how the season will play out and where teams will finish. Odds are unlikely to shift much in the lead up to Opening Day, barring catastrophic injuries or blockbuster trades.

With that in mind, let’s look at MLB futures odds and find some bets for baseball bettors before the season starts.

What is an MLB Futures Bet?

A futures bet is exactly what it sounds like—a bet on a future outcome. Futures bets can usually be broken down into two categories:

• Team-specific futures bets
• Player-specific futures bets

Team-oriented futures typically include events like which team will win the championship or how many games a team will win. Player futures tend to be centered more around awards (i.e., MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, etc.) and player statistics, like whether a player will go over his projected home run or RBI total.

Because the future is difficult to predict and can be affected by numerous unforeseeable factors like injuries or trades, futures odds usually have relatively large payouts. It’s hard to correctly guess which of the 30 teams will win the World Series or which player will win an award.

Baseball has a long season, and much can change over 162 games. Accordingly, expect the odds to shift throughout the year as teams and players perform better or worse than expected.

Futures bets also won’t cash until the season is over, so you’ll have to wait until October or November to receive your potential payout. Accordingly, you don’t want to tie up too much of your betting funds in futures. You might want to wager throughout the season.

When Can I Make an MLB Futures Bet?

You can usually make most MLB futures bets at any point during the season, although many bettors prefer to place their futures bets before the season. This is because the odds for favorites will shorten throughout the season as frontrunners emerge, so you tend to get more value and better bang for your buck with preseason odds when so much is unknown.

As mentioned, odds and lines for futures bets change frequently throughout the season as sportsbooks adjust to what has happened. One way to get ahead of that is by placing your bets before the season starts, although it’s certainly not required. A benefit of waiting is that you’ll have more information, which can help you more accurately predict what will happen.

For example, the Chicago White Sox might open the season with +2000 odds to win the World Series. But if they have a great first half and have one of the best records in baseball at the All-Star Break, their odds may have shortened to +1000 by then, cutting your potential payout in half.

How Much Do I Have to Wager on MLB Futures Bets?

How much you decide to wager is ultimately up to you and depends on how much you’re willing to risk and how confident you are in the bet. Obviously, the more you wager, the more you stand to win. Higher odds translate to higher payouts as well.

Depending on the sportsbook, there is typically a minimum on how much money you need to wager to place a bet—usually at least $1-$5. Similar to parlays, futures bets can be an amusing way to risk a little money for the chance at a big payday.

For example, if you wager $10 on San Diego Padres to win the World Series at +1000 odds, you’ll earn $100 in profit plus your original stake back if they win—not bad for a relatively small wager.

Most Popular MLB Futures Bets

While there are plenty of ways to bet on baseball, here are examples of some of the most popular types of futures bets. Some sportsbooks offer more variety, so be sure to look around if you don’t see the kind of bet you’re seeking.

2023 World Series Odds

Often in sports betting, the favorite to win a championship or award is just the same team or player who won it the previous year.

Baseball isn’t that simple, however. No team has won consecutive World Series in the 21st Century, so you’re better off betting on a different team to win the championship.

Here are the World Series odds for all 30 teams according to DraftKings Sportsbook, which are subject to change. Odds can vary slightly based on the sportsbook.

• Houston Astros: +600
• New York Mets: +750
• New York Yankees: +750
• Los Angeles Dodgers: +800
• Atlanta Braves: +900
• San Diego Padres: +1000
• Toronto Blue Jays: +1300
• Philadelphia Phillies: +1700
• Seattle Mariners: +1800
• St. Louis Cardinals: +1900
• Tampa Bay Rays: +2000
• Cleveland Guardians: +2200
• Chicago White Sox: +3500
• Milwaukee Brewers: +3500
• Minnesota Twins: +4000
• Texas Rangers: +4500
• Los Angeles Angels: +5000
• San Francisco Giants: +5500
• Boston Red Sox: +6000
• Baltimore Orioles: +7000
• Chicago Cubs: +8000
• Miami Marlins: +8000
• Arizona Diamondbacks: +15000
• Cincinnati Reds: +20000
• Detroit Tigers: +20000
• Kansas City Royals: +20000
• Pittsburgh Pirates: +25000
• Washington Nationals: +40000
• Colorado Rockies: +40000
• Oakland Athletics: +50000

As is usually the case for futures bets, the defending champion is the favorite to lift the trophy. In this case it’s warranted, as the Astros were clearly the best team in baseball and return mostly intact, albeit without reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. No team has won back-to-back World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees, however, so history is not on their side.

The team they beat in the Fall Classic—the Phillies—are surprisingly far down, ranking eighth in the odds at +1700. That makes them a good value pick, especially after signing Trea Turner and fortifying their bullpen in the offseason.

Houston is followed by the two teams from New York. The Mets have moved up to second in the odds after spending a ton of money in the offseason to improve what was already a 101-win team in 2022. On paper, they’re the most talented team in the National League and are well-positioned to win their first championship since 1986.

There’s a decent chance they might have to go through the Yankees in a Subway Series, however. Not only did the Bronx Bombers keep Aaron Judge, but they also added another ace in Carlos Rodon to form a devastating 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Gerrit Cole.

Any of the top half-dozen teams in each league has a shot at winning it all, so choose wisely.

Pennant Futures Betting

Predicting which team will be the last one standing is hard, but guessing which team will win its league is a bit easier. The Astros, for example, have won the American League in four of the last six seasons but have won the World Series only twice during that time. They will be tough to de-throne in the AL, but the Yankees, Blue Jays and others are talented enough to potentially do it.

The Dodgers have enjoyed similar dominance recently by winning three of the last six pennants in the National League. After taking a significant step back this winter to get under the luxury tax, however, the NL appears up for grabs. That makes teams like the Mets, Phillies, Padres and Braves all serious pennant contenders.

Division Winner Futures Betting

In the past, wagering on division winners was a bit easier because division rivals would play each other more frequently, enabling the stronger teams to beat up the weaker ones and gain more separation in the standings.

That won’t be the case going forward thanks to MLB’s new balanced schedules, which reduces the number of rivalry games and will presumably make division races more up in the air.

That said, here are the favorites to win each division in 2023:

• AL East: New York Yankees +110
• AL Central: Cleveland Guardians +135
• AL West: Houston Astros -180
• NL East: New York Mets +130
• NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals -120
• NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers -125

Not surprisingly, all of these teams won their divisions in 2022, with the exception of the Mets, who finished with the same record as the first-place Braves but lost because of a tiebreaker. Atlanta has won five straight division crowns, so it’s notable that New York is favored in 2023.

As you can see, only the Astros, Cardinals and Dodgers are “true” favorites with minus odds, as all appear to be the strongest teams in relatively weak divisions. The oddsmakers are less confident about the Yankees, Guardians and Mets, who play in tougher divisions and figure to face stiff competition for first place.

If you’re feeling bold, it’s also possible to bet on the exact order of how teams will finish in a certain division (which team will finish first through fifth). This is harder to predict, obviously, which is why the odds and payouts are higher.

Betting on Teams to Make the Playoffs

Betting on whether a team will make the playoffs or not has become a bit easier than it used to be. For starters, more teams make the postseason now than in the past. Thanks to playoff expansion, 12 of the 30 teams make the postseason, which means each team starts with a 40% chance.

You can also eliminate some teams right off the bat, as several are “rebuilding” and are clearly not making much of an effort to put a playoff-caliber team on the field. By removing clubs like the Nationals, Pirates, Rockies and others, you can focus on teams with legit postseason aspirations.

For the purposes of this bet, it doesn’t matter whether a team makes the playoffs as a division winner or as a Wild Card team. All you have to do is correctly guess whether or not a team will reach the postseason as a simple Yes/No answer.

Betting on MLB Season Win Totals

While betting on where a team finishes in the standings or how far it goes in the playoffs depends on circumstances outside of that team’s control (i.e., how good other teams in the league are) and leaves more to chance, betting on a team’s win total is more straightforward and predictable.

These types of futures bets are popular and easy. A sportsbook will set the line for how many wins a team is expected to record during the regular season, and all you have to do is pick over or under. So if the Braves are listed at 85.5 wins, and you think they’ll win 90+, then bet the over.

With so many projection models publicly available, you can also use these to help inform your wagers of how many games a team is expected to win based on factors like talent level, injury risk, strength of schedule and more.

Other MLB Futures Markets

In addition to making MLB futures bets on teams, you can also place futures bets on players. The most popular type of player futures is guessing which player will win a certain award in his league at the end of the season (i.e., AL or NL MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, etc.).

You can also wager on which player will lead MLB in specific categories such as home runs, strikeouts, RBIs, stolen bases and more. Some sportsbooks will also offer over/unders for top players on certain statistics, enabling you to wager on whether Aaron Judge will go over or under 45.5 home runs, for instance.

With so many futures to wager on, there’s no shortage of betting opportunities to keep bettors engaged until the final pitch of the season. Even the best MLB hitters fail to get a hit seven out of 10 times, so don’t be afraid to swing for the fences.