MLB Odds: 2023 NL East Division Winner Prediction and Pick

The Atlanta Braves look to win the National League East for a sixth straight year. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with an NL East Division winner prediction and pick.

The Atlanta Braves are currently the best team in baseball sitting with a 60-29 record in the season. They go into the break as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning 26 of their last 31 games. They now have a commanding 8.5-game lead in the division, and look to continue to grow that lead.

The Miami Marlins are looking to catch them and win the division for the first time in franchise history. This is the best first half of a season the Marlins have ever had. The Marlins have made the playoffs three times in franchise history, winning two World Series, but losing the division to the Braves each time.

The Philadelphia Phillies are still in contention for a playoff run. While the team is sitting at 48-41, they have been hot as of late. Since June 3rd, the Phillies are 23-9. That places them just a half-game back in the wild-card race, and 12 games back of the Braves.

The New York Mets have been a disappointment this year. While they would love to make a big move to make a run in the division, they are most likely too far behind. The Mets are 42-48 on the season and are 18.5 games back. In the division era, no team has made up 18.5 games to win the division. The most recent large comeback was 13 games by the 2012 Athletics, who were down that much on June 30th.

Finally, Washington Nationalscontinue towards a rebuild. At 36-54 on the season, they are 24.5 games back in the division. The team is not the worst in the majors but is not in a position to win the division.

Here are the Nationals League East Division winner odds,

2023 NL East Divison Winner Odds

Atlanta Braves: -20000

Miami Marlins: +10000

New York Mets: +25000

Washington Nationals: +25000

Why the Atlanta Braves will win the AL East

There is a reason the Braves are well in first place. First, it starts with the offense. They are third in the majors in runs scored, second in batting average, and second in on-base percentage. They are doing this while hitting an insane amount of home runs. So far this year, the Braves have hit 169 home runs, 20 more than the next most.

The Braves are led by MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. He is second in the majors in batting average this year, while also sitting second in stolen bases. Meanwhile, he is 11th in home runs, 23rd in RBIS, and leads the majors in WAR.

The pitching for the Braves maybe even stronger. They are first in ERA this year, while sitting 12th in WHIP, and seventh in opponent batting average. They have a Cy Young candidate leading them with Spencer Strider. Strider has 11 wins this year with a 3.44 ERA. He also has 166 strikeouts on the season.

Why the Miami Marlins will win the AL East

The Marlins have never won the division, and maybe this could be the year. The biggest issue for the Marlins is scoring runs. They are 21st in the majors in scoring runs this year, while sitting 3rd in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging percentage.

Jorge Soler and Luis Arraez are leading this team. Arraez has the highest WAR on the team at 3.9. He leads the majors in batting average at .383 and will be making a run at .400. Jorge Soler leads the team in run production, hitting 23 home runs, and batting in 51.

The Marlins will need some pitching to make a run as well. They are 14th in terms of ERA, 13th in WHIP, and 14th in opponent batting average. While Jesus Luzardo has been solid, with a 3.29 ERA and eight wins, the Marlins need help. They would love to see Sandy Alcantara get back to form, as he sits fourth in WAR among starting pitchers.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win the AL East

The Phillies have the potential to make a run in the division. They are 17th in runs scored this year while sitting eighth in batting average, 17th in on-base percentage, and 10th in slugging. For the Phillies, it is about health. They will still be without Rhys Hoskins all year, but much of the team is now playing. Bryce Harper could see the field soon, currently just hitting as the DH.

Much of the fortunes of the offense may sit on Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber is hitting under .200 on the season, but as the Phillies have made a run, he has hit much better. He hit .223 in June while still sending eight balls over the fence and driving in 16. If he can keep up the hot hitting, the Phillies could make a run.

The Phillies may need some better pitching too. They are 13th in team ERA, seventh in WHIP, and 13th in opponent batting average. Taijuan Walker and Aaron Nola are leading the way. Nola has a 4.39 ERA with eight wins, while Walker is at 4.02 with ten wins. If they can get Ranger Suarez going and keep their top-ten-rated bullpen pitching well, the Phillies can make a run.

Why the New York Mets will win the AL East

How much do people doubt the Mets? They have the same odds to win the division as the Nationals. The offense has not been as advertised, sitting 15th in runs scored, 20th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, and 16th in slugging.

While the batting has not been great, the pitching has been dreadful this year. They are 20th in team ERA, 21st in WHIP, and 18th in opponent batting average. Max Scherzer leads the team with eight wins and a 4.31 ERA, but with how the Mets have been playing, he could be on his way out of town.

Why the Washington Nationals will win the AL East

If you are picking a +25000 team to win, why not the Nats? Josiah Gray is an all-star and has a 3.41 ERA. The pitching staff is similar in statistics to the Mets as well. Even more, the Nationals hit better than the Mets.

This year, the Nats are fifth in the majors in batting average. They have struggled to score, as they leave too many batters stranded. Lane Thomas leads them on offense, with his .302 batting average, 14 home runs, and 49 RBIs. All those numbers are tops on the team. If the Nationals can get another bat to go with him, they have as good a chance, if not better than the Mets, to win the division.

Final NL East Division Winner Prediction and Pick

The easy pick for the division is the Braves. They not only have one of the best offensive units in the majors but also some of the best pitching. It is not just the starters, it is a third-ranked bullpen as well. Still, there is not fun picking a team at -20000. That is a huge amount of money to lay for very little return. The best pick here is the other hot team in the division. The Phillies have all the same tools and are getting hot. They will make a run, and get the division win.

Final NL East Division Winner Prediction and Pick: Phillies (+4800)