MLB odds: Phillies favored to win World Series ahead of NLCS

Journal Inquirer

16 October 2023

MLB odds: Phillies favored to win World Series ahead of NLCS

For the second straight postseason, the Phillies return to the National League Championship Series after dispatching the Atlanta Braves, three games to one, in the National League Division Series. The Phillies will face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who swept the Los Angeles Dodgers to clinch their first championship series since 2007.

The series, which now takes on a best-of-seven format, will begin at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies have gone 10-2 over the last two playoff runs combined, both losses coming in the World Series.

After briefly becoming World Series favorites during its Game 3 win and ending Thursday night as near co-favorites with the Houston Astros at FanDuel after winning Game 4 against the Braves, the Phillies are co-favorites to win the World Series entering the NLCS.

Here’s a look at where the odds stand as the Phillies and Diamondbacks prepare for Game 1 of the NLCS.

Phillies: +200
Rangers: +200 (opened ALCS at +275)
Astros: +300 (opened ALCS at +190)
Diamondbacks: +450

After the Texas Rangers took Game 1 of the ALCS against the Astros, they moved to co-favorites with the Phillies. BetMGM, though, is getting more money on the Phillies than any other team remaining.

“The Phillies to win the World Series is currently our biggest liability,” Alex Rella, a BetMGM trader, told The Inquirer. “The Arizona Diamondbacks are the second biggest hit for us and it is no coincidence that these are two states where customers can place wagers with BetMGM and sports betting is currently not available in Texas.”

“So as a company, we will be rooting for either team in the American League to win the championship. Interestingly, Arizona is the larger liability to win the National League at the moment.”

Although Texas doesn’t have legalized sports betting, it hasn’t stopped Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, known for putting big money on his beloved Astros, from putting down $3 million in bets on Houston to repeat as champions. An Astros 2023 World Series could win Mack another big payday in bets after he made $75 million last year from the Astros win.

When the World Series odds opened last November, the Phillies sat at +1600 to win its third World Series title at BetMGM. Over the course of the season, those odds fluctuated, but the team moved down the odds board significantly in early June when it was on a four-game losing streak and seven games under .500.

“The highest point was during June when they reached 30-1 [odds at the sportsbook],” Rella added, “and since then, they have been shortening steadily. Philadelphia opened the playoffs at 12-1 odds and subsequently opened the NLDS at 8-1 [odds].”

The Braves were the overwhelming favorites to start the playoffs (+250) and at the beginning of the divisional round (+300). The Phillies took control of the odds to win the national league pennant after their Game 1 win over the Braves, briefly lost it after its game 2 loss and haven’t looked back since its dominant Game 3 win last week.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, opened at +6600 to win the World Series back in November. That ballooned to +12500 at BetMGM during spring training, the eighth-worst odds in baseball. By the time they clinched a playoff spot, those odds sat at 50-1, tied for the longest of all 12 playoff teams.

The Diamondbacks’ odds to win the national league opened at +3500, and even after clinching the final wild card spot, those odds moved to +1800 to win the pennant at the sportsbook. Entering the NLDS against the Dodgers, those odds were still long, at +550, slightly behind the Phillies, who entered their matchup with the Braves at +450 to win the NL.

Now, the Phillies enter the NLCS as sizable favorites to win the pennant for the second straight season, valued at -185 at BetMGM, while the Diamondbacks sit at +150.