2023 National League pennant odds: Top-seeded Braves favored; Phillies taking solid action to return to World Series

The Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers have won the past three National League pennants. They comprise 75% of the NL's final four entering the start of the Division Series on Saturday. Joining them are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are in the postseason for the first time since 2017 and eyeing their first pennant since the 2001 team won the franchise's only World Series. See the SportsLine Projection Model's simulations below.

As one would expect, the top-seeded Braves, who have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, are the +140 pennant favorites at BetMGM and host the Phillies in Game 1 on Saturday. Philadelphia went from a Wild Card berth to the World Series in 2022 and is +450 repeat. Atlanta leads in most money wagered to win the pennant at 23.3%, but Philadelphia leads in tickets at 16.5%.

The Phillies are at one major disadvantage entering the Atlanta series in that neither of their top two starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola, are available for Game 1 after stellar performances from both in the Wild Card series sweep over the Miami Marlins.

Atlanta was a heavy favorite in the 2022 NLDS against Philadelphia as well but lost in four games. This time, the Braves, who tied an MLB record with 309 homers this year, are -185 on the series line. The Phillies are +150. Atlanta won the regular-season series 8-5. Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first player in history with a 40-steal, 70-homer season. Matt Olson led the majors in homers and RBI (also breaking team records in both), the first Braves player to do so since Hank Aaron in 1957.

Arizona (+550 to win the pennant) trailed both games in the Wild Card round in Milwaukee early by at least two runs, yet came back to win both at least three runs. The Brewers were the second team in MLB history to have a multi-run lead at home in each of the final two games of a postseason series but lose both by such a margin. The DBacks joined the 2008 Dodgers as the only teams to sweep a playoff series with 84 wins or fewer in a 162-game MLB regular season.

The Dodgers are -210 on the series line with the Diamondbacks at +210. L.A. (+200 for the pennant) is in the postseason for an 11th straight year, the third-longest streak in MLB history. It is the first team to win at least 100 games in four straight full seasons. The Dodgers won the season series against Arizona 8-5 and took the final five by a 30-9 combined margin. This is the second-ever playoff meeting between the teams, after L.A. swept Arizona in the 2017 NLDS.

The major reason why the SportsLine Projection Model likes the Dodgers over the Braves to win the pennant is because LA has an easier NLDS matchup. 

On the NL straight forecast, the Braves over the Dodgers in the NLCS is the +320 favorite, followed by Dodgers over Braves at +425. The longshot is Diamondbacks over Phillies at +1100.

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