MLB odds: Phillies likely to make playoffs, but less likely to get back to World Series

Four months ago, as baseball’s spring training neared its completion, the Phillies looked like a team that was preparing to make another run at the World Series — even without a known timetable for Bryce Harper’s return to the batter’s box.

They had brought in some reinforcements in the form of Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, and Craig Kimbrel.

But then Rhys Hoskins went down with a season-ending injury in late March. And the Phillies, with a listless offense, limped out of the gates. They lost their first four games, 10 of their first 15, and were 25-32 as the clock struck midnight on June 3.

World Series? Just getting back to .500 seemed like a chore.

The Phillies have played some inspired baseball since then, and they sit at 48-41, a half-game out of a wild-card playoff spot as the second half gets underway Friday with the first of a four-game set vs. San Diego.

And while a lot has changed since the Phillies and Padres met in last year’s National League Championship Series, the Phillies get started with the second half in a similar position — as far as futures odds go — to where they were when the season began on March 30.

Here’s a look at some Phillies futures odds as the MLB season restarts following the All-Star break.

BetMGM’s win total number on the Phillies before the season began: 88½ wins.

BetMGM’s win total number on the Phillies now: 87½ wins.

Simple math, really. The Phillies won at a 53.9% clip in the first half. What’s 53.9% of 162? 87.318.

Think the Phillies will fare better in the second half? Then take the over. Think they’ll take a step back? Take the under.

For some context: The Phillies were the last wild-card team in 2022 with ... wait for it ... 87 wins.

The playoffs sure looked far away from their reach when June began, but the Phillies have turned things around and are more than just in the mix in the wild-card race.

They’re a half-game behind San Francisco for the last spot, though the Giants have played one more game.

BetMGM has the Phillies at -225 to make the postseason, while San Francisco is -125. That Phillies number is not a big change from the beginning of the season, when it was priced around -200.

A big positive for the Phillies is their remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon, which is easier than any other team chasing a wild-card spot.

While Harper’s lack of power since returning from injury has been a hot topic, Turner has just 10 home runs through 89 games. That’s a pace of 18.2 home runs.

Turner hit 21 home runs last year and 28 in 2021 before signing his $300 million deal with the Phillies.

Before the season, BetMGM had Turner’s home run total at 21½. Now, that number is down to 17½.

Speaking of home runs, BetMGM has a fun Shohei Ohtani prop. The runaway American League MVP candidate has 32 home runs at the break. His regular over/under on home runs is at 48½, but the sportsbook is offering a prop of 62½ home runs with the over priced at 30/1.

This should come as no surprise, but the Phillies are less likely to both reach and win the World Series than they were a few months ago.

Before the season, the Phillies were +750 to win the NL. They’re +1200 heading out of the break.

They were +1500 (15/1) to win the World Series before the season, and are now all the way down to +2500 (25/1).

Five teams have odds of 10/1 or shorter to win the World Series at BetMGM. They are: the Braves (+350), Rays (+500), Dodgers (+550), Astros (+800), and Rangers (+1000).