MLB MVP odds: Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña settle in as early-season favorites
It’s been exactly a decade since the last time someone won back-to-back MLB MVP awards. And if the first month of the 2023 season is any indication, that streak will live on for another year.
Because right now, Los Angeles Angels phenom (and 2021 MVP) Shohei Ohtani and electrifying Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. are the runaway favorites to win this year’s American League and National League MVPs, respectively.
Of course, with five months and a long, hot summer still to go, the race is far from over. But unless Ohtani and Acuña are sidelined by long-term injuries, they’re going to be difficult to track down.
Here’s a look at updated MLB MVP odds for both the AL and NL, as well as how the wagering action is shaping up at BetMGM.
Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on May 3.
2023 American League MVP odds
When Ohtani won his 2021 AL MVP, he garnered every single first-place vote and blew away the competition.
In fact, the voting gap between Ohtani and runner-up Vladimir Guerrero of the Toronto Blue Jays (151 points) was larger than the gap between Guerrero and the sixth-place finisher, Cleveland’s José Ramírez (136 points).
That season, the modern-day Babe Ruth hit .257 with 46 homers, 100 RBI, 103 runs, 96 walks, 26 stolen bases and a .965 OPS … while also going 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 23 starts on the mound.
Somehow, Ohtani’s numbers this year are on pace to trump those of 2021 — particularly on the pitching side of things.
Despite getting roughed up in his most recent start against the lowly Oakland A’s, Ohtani is still 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in six outings. He’s given up just 11 hits in 28 innings, and while his 17 walks rank among the league leaders, his 0.82 WHIP is still tied for fifth-best in MLB.
The batting average for opposing hitters against Ohtani: .102, the best in baseball by a mile.
Ohtani also is doing just fine when he trades his fielding glove for batting gloves. He’s hitting .294 with seven homers, 18 RBI, 18 runs and five stolen bases. His OPS? A pedestrian (for him) .896.
All of this explains why Ohtani, who began the year as the +200 favorite to win AL MVP at BetMGM, already is an odds-on favorite to win the award for a second time in three seasons.
Three days into May, Ohtani’s closest pursuers already need binoculars to see him. Yankees outfielder and reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, who is currently on the injured list, is the second choice at Caesars Sportsbook at +700 odds.
However, Ohtani’s teammate — center fielder and three-time AL MVP Mike Trout — is ahead of Judge at both BetMGM (+700) and FanDuel (+1000).
Both Judge and Trout have solid stats so far, as do the players directly behind them in the AL MVP market, including Guerrero, Tampa Bay shortstop Wander Franco and Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman.
But none are doing what Ohtani is doing. Then again, nobody in the history baseball ever has — including Ruth.
2023 National League MVP odds
Acuña has long been regarded as one of baseball’s top all-around young players. And the Braves’ right fielder proved as much in his first four MLB seasons, when he posted 105 home runs, 246 RBI and 78 stolen bases while committing just five errors in 395 games.
But that fourth MLB season was cut in half, as Acuña tore his ACLon the day before the 2021 All-Star break. At the time, he already had 24 homers, 52 RBI and a .990 OPS in 82 games, and was a top MVP candidate.
The knee injury delayed Acuña’s 2022 season. And while he played in 119 games, he never fully regained his stroke.
Suffice to say, he has now.
Acuña entered Wednesday’s action ranked in the top five among all MLB hitters in batting average (.362, 3rd); OPS (1.035, 5th); hits (42, 2nd); doubles (11, T-3rd); runs (26, T-1st); and on-base percentage (.449, 3rd).
The 25-year-old native of Venezuela also has five homers and 16 RBI, and his 14 stolen bases lead all of baseball (proving that his knee is 100 percent healed).
Acuña began the season as the co-third choice to win NL MVP at BetMGM. His +1200 odds were tied with the Phillies’ Trea Turner, the Padres’ Manny Machado and the Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado.
Those four players trailed preseason favorite Juan Soto (+550), as well as the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (+900), the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000) and reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals (+1000).
Now, Acuña is alone at the top across the board. And while the separation between him and the rest of the field isn’t as great as Ohtani in the American League, it’s close.
New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso, who entered Wednesday tied for the MLB lead with 11 homers, is the consensus second choice with odds ranging from +650 (FanDuel) to +700 (BetMGM and Caesars).
Acuña and Alonso are the only two NL players with single-digit MVP odds. And at BetMGM, they’re among just nine players with MVP odds shorter than +2000.
Tracking the MVP action
Much to the chagrin of BetMGM’s risk room, both Ohtani and Acuña haven’t flown under the radar with MLB futures bettors.
The sportsbook on Tuesday reported that they’ve taken more MVP money on the two current favorites — 30.8% for Ohtani in the AL; 25.9% for Acuña in the NL — than any other players.
Orioles catcher Rutschman is second in the AL in money at 12.8%, followed by Toronto’s Guerrero (6.9%) and Tampa Bay’s Franco (6.6%).
Over in the NL, the Phillies’ Turner is right behind Acuña in money wagered at BetMGM at 23.7%. From there, it’s a huge dropoff to Soto (6.6%) and Braves first baseman Matt Olson (4.8%).
Ohtani also leads the AL in terms of number of bets at BetMGM, as 15.1% of all MVP tickets are on the Japanese star. Rutschman is second in tickets at 9.5%, followed by Guerrero (9.0%) and Cleveland’s Ramírez (8.0%).
Turner paces the field in NL MVP tickets at BetMGM (21.0%), just ahead of Acuña (19.1%). Again, there’s a huge gap after that duo, with Soto third in tickets (5.4%) and Betts fourth (3.9%).
Translation: BetMGM’s oddsmakers will be spending the summer rooting hard for Ohtani and Acuña to see a massive decline in production.
And if Turner and Rutschman go into prolonged slumps, all the better. Because both are actually BetMGM’s biggest liabilities at the moment.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
