MLB Picks for August 2: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Thanks to the new Systems tab on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, two plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.

There’s some concern about this game going a full nine, but that doesn’t matter to us as long as Joe Ryan is able to do his thing and Minnesota’s bats get a crack at Dakota Hudson.

The Twins have posted a .215 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past month. As much as there’s been some luck involved, as evidenced by their elevated BABIP since July 1, that ISO and their .352 team wOBA have been earned. During the same time span, Minnesota has a 36.1% hard-contact rate against righties, yet just a 38.4% ground-ball rate.

Wednesday’s contest will be Hudson’s first start of the season, and only the second time he’s been stretched out. In short bursts, the St. Louis right-hander has been solid. But when he was asked to take over for Miles Mikolas after the starter was ejected vs. the Cubs, Hudson gave up five runs over 4 1/3.

Now, Ryan is coming off his worst month of the season. He has some bright spots in July, but a month-long 6.32 ERA and 5.29 FIP sure aren’t great. But, he’s facing a Cardinals lineup that has been middling in terms of power. St. Louis also has the fourth-highest ground-ball rate (46.4%) against right-handed pitching since July 1.

From a system standpoint, this game grades out very well. Interleague favorites have won 57.93% of the time this season. More importantly, interleague favorites coming off a win in which the under hit are 85-40 (68% winning percentage).

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease has very much been trending in the right direction over his last 10 starts. Dane Dunning had a rough July. And when you look at these two names, it might seem like the White Sox are a steal here. However, Chicago is just 5-5 over Cease’s last five starts. Despite a 5.06 July ERA, the Rangers managed to go 2-3 with Dunning on the mound last month.

The difference between these two teams are the offenses. Texas has a .198 ISO against right-handed pitching since June and just a 20.8% strikeout rate. The White Sox have a 24.3% strikeout rate and .119 ISO against right-handers during the same time frame. And when you look at the quality of contact stats since July 1, Chicago’s woes should maintain against righties — 45.1% ground-ball rate and 31.6% hard-contact rate. Meanwhile, the Rangers have a 36% hard-contact rate and just a 35.9% ground-ball rate against righties during that same span.

Also, home favorites coming off a win have won 58.76% of the time this season. In 2023 matchups between non-divisional American League teams, the favorite has won 61.4% of the time. The Rangers are 22-10 in this setting.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.