MLB Picks: Free MLB Picks and Props for Thursday, May 4

RotoWire

04 May 2023

MLB Picks: Free MLB Picks and Props for Thursday, May 4

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

Season: 19-26 -12.45 units

Prior Article: 2-2 -2.12 units

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Rays scored 4 unearned runs on 3 Pirates errors and had 8 runs on a total of 10 hits last night to put the game total over 7.5 (8-1). Guardians left 21 runners on base and landed on a total of 3 runs and missed the over of 4. Just a frustrating baseball season to say the least.

Very small slate in the evening as most of the games are afternoon, so treading lightly.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

One of the angles I like to use is taking the better pitcher at home as an underdog or even play. We get that in this spot with Dylan Dodd starting for the Braves in what looks to be a bullpen game against Jesus Luzardo.

For as much as I dislike the Marlins' offense, they are 12-8 in their last 20 and 10-0 in 1-run games. Luzardo has had decent history against the Braves with his last outing going 6 innings with 12 strikeouts, 1 walk, and 0 earned runs. He is off to a great start in 2023 with a 2.95 ERA, 50 strikeouts and 12 walks in 39.2 innings. Dodd got lit up in his last start against the Padres on April 9th for 7 earned runs in 4.1 innings.

The UNDER has hit in 9 out of the last 10 Marlins home games and the total gets juiced up here to 8.5 runs. Almost all of Luzardo's recent home starts have totals in the 6.5-7.5 run range and the UNDER is 6-3-1.

Marlins F5 for 1.22 units (FanDuel -122)
Braves/Marlins UNDER 8.5 for 1.10 units (DraftKings -110)

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

This series has seen a lot of runs scored, and it will continue tonight but only on the Toronto side. Kevin Gausman has been lights out with a 2.33 ERA, 54 strikeouts, 6 walks, over 41.2 innings. Brayan Bello has a 6.57 ERA in just 12.1 innings over 3 starts.

As much as I love Bello long-term, he is going to struggle against the upper echelon teams and lineups like the Blue Jays.

The total has gone OVER in 5 straight between these two teams. It has also gone OVER in 6 out of the last 7 in Boston.