MLB Betting Picks Today: Free MLB Picks and Props for May 19

RotoWire

19 May 2023

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

Season: 24-40 -30.15 units

Prior Article: 2-5 -7.76 units

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**This has been the toughest stretch of baseball handicapping I have had ever and I needed to rethink my strategy here. There will be a total of four plays and only 1-2 max plays per game along with just one net unit. I have not changed my analysis process over the last three seasons, but I have started to place multiple plays on the same game and too many units chasing losses, which has hurt me. Time to play tight and reel things in.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

One of my strategies is going to be how to attack the A's every day as they are the worst team in baseball. The moneylines are just too expensive now, and the run lines are starting to creep up there also. So either going with a team total OVER or OVER on the pitcher's earned runs has been the way to go.

Ken Waldichuk has a 9.15 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his four road outings, with a whopping 5.9 BB/9, and 3.7 HR/9. He has allowed at least three earned runs in all four starts and is a bottom-five pitcher on the road. The Astros' offense has scored just 2.05 runs per game at home, so there is some risk, but Waldichuk's walks-plus-home-runs-allowed are so high that getting to four runs in the first five innings can happen. The Astros are projected to have seven right-handed batters in the lineup tonight, which is a huge factor.

The team total for the Astros on the game is 5.5 runs, but most of the damage will happen against Waldichuk, and the F5 team total is just 3.5 runs.

Astros OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +115)

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Brewers at Rays

Shane McClanahan has been unhittable at Tropicana with a 1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 34 strikeouts to eight walks in four starts (23.0 innings). The Brewers have the lowest implied run total at 3.1 on the 15-game slate, and are one of the worst teams on the road against left-handed pitching. They are dead last in ISO (.080), wRC+(54), wOBA (.252) and strikeout rate (32.4%).

Shane McClanahan UNDER 1.5 earned runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)
McClanahan OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.40 units (DraftKings -140)

Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres

The Red Sox struggle against left-handed pitching and are in the bottom 5 in most offensive categories on the road. Blake Snell got off to a rough start in his first 4 outings (6.00 ERA), but has been able to turn it around recently (3.52 ERA last 4 starts)

The Red Sox are a very heavy left-handed hitting lineup and do have some strong right-handed split hitters like Rob Refsnyder, Enrique Hernandez, and Justin Turner. But their overall team stats against lefties, along with James Paxton's very strong outing last time out have me leaning towards the UNDER. The Padres are also without leading right-handed hitter Manny Machado.

The UNDER has gone 7-1 in the Padres last 8 home games and is 12-2 in their last 14 games overall. The total opened at 9 and has moved down to just 8 in most places.