MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for July 31, 2023
The Blue Jays have been the better offense against righties. They have a 110 wRC+ in the last 30 days compared to the Orioles at 90. Over the full season, it’s a bit closer, putting the Blue Jays at 109 compared to the Orioles at 100. The Blue Jays have the edge on offense.
From bottom to top, SIERA’s top five bullpens are the Giants, Orioles, Braves, Seattle, and Toronto. The Blue Jays have the best bullpen in baseball by the best ERA predictor, and they just added Jordan Hicks, who is trending well.
The Blue Jays have some solid arms available after Bassitt. They have Swanson, who is excellent and their best reliever outside of Romano. Hicks should be ready to go as well. They can go to Trevor Richards as well who has a 3.04 ERA. They are set up nicely here.
The Orioles have Felix Bautista available, which isn’t ideal for Blue Jays backers. However, I assume he will only come in if the Orioles are winning, so it doesn’t really matter because we’d probably lose anyway. Danny Coulombe is also excellent but not much different from Richards this season. Cionel Perez is probably their worst arm outside of Cole Irvin, and he’ll be in this game. I give a slight edge to the Blue Jays.
A small edge on each side of the ball combined with the Sunday Night Baseball System. Play the Blue Jays up to -135.
I like the Cubs to win today, but I wish I had a better price. I think the best price is targeting Marcus Stroman on the strikeout line on PrizePicks. For one, he’s -130 to go over this, which is a good price target when looking at PrizePicks. The Reds have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against righties in the last 30 days and are filled with left-handers. Stroman’s clear better split is against lefties, with most of his pitches diving away from lefties, posting a .539 OPS. He has a higher strikeout rate at home, and Stroman tends to show up in big games. This is a big one when considering standings implications and tomorrow’s trade deadline. I capped him at five strikeouts, and the model has him at 6.2, so I’m rolling with 4.5.
