Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prop bets: Bichette could be in for a big day

The Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals will play a rubber match on Sunday to conclude their three-game series at Busch Stadium.

The pregame narrative: Bo Bichette draws an excellent matchup that should see him contend for multiple bases. We’re also fading Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery on his strikeout prop and eyeing some value on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to score a run.

MLB odds as of 10:45 a.m. ET on 04/02/23.

Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prop bets

Best Bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (+104)

If the final month of Bichette’s 2022 season is an indication of what’s to come, look out.

Bichette batted .406 in 32 games from the start of September onward, clearing this line 20 times in that span. He’s off to a 5-for-10 start now, although the bulk of that damage was done on Opening Day.

What typically makes Bichette a desirable player for bases props are his free-swinging tendencies. According to Baseball Savant, Bichette ranked in the 14th percentile for chase rate and the 19th percentile for walk rate last year.

The league-average swing rate was 47.7% last year, and only 32.6% for pitches out of the zone. Bichette’s swing rate was 56.0%, though, as well as 38.6% on out-of-zone offerings.

In other words, he’s up there to hit. Not to watch.

A bonus on today’s situation for Bichette is that he has an excellent history against Montgomery. Bichette is 6-for-11 off the St. Louis starter — with four extra-base hits.

The shortstop’s strong numbers in this matchup make sense given that Montgomery is a lefty. Bichette has tormented southpaws throughout his career, and we think he can do so again today.

Key stat: Bichette has a .913 OPS in his career against lefties, which is 102 points better than his career OPS vs. righties (.811).

Quick picks

Montgomery under 4.5 strikeouts (-115): Though Montgomery crept over this line in both starts against Toronto last year — nabbing 5 Ks apiece — we think he’s worth fading today.

The Blue Jays posted a 19.9% K-rate against lefties last year, which was the third-lowest rate in the majors. Montgomery’s career K-rate against Toronto’s lineup (18.8%) is even lower than that.

Generally speaking, this is a fair line to take the over on for Montgomery. But not against a Blue Jays team that typically exercises discipline against him and other lefties.

Guerrero over 0.5 runs (+133): Guerrero’s lone run so far came on a passed ball. At some point, either he or his teammates are going to drive him home.

The two-time reigning all-star has reached safely in six of his 11 plate appearances, with three walks, a hit-by-pitch and two hits. His patience was on display Saturday, as he saw 34 pitches in five trips to the plate.

At this price, his opportunity is too rich for us to ignore.

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