MLB prediction: Chicago Cubs odds, picks, best bets

Heading into the weekend on a six-game winning streak, the Chicago Cubs are now back at .500 for the first time since May 12.

A team that was once looked at as sellers heading into the trade deadline this coming Tuesday is suddenly in position to make a run at the postseason.

While the story has largely been about the Cubs making a run at a National League wild-card spot, considering they’ve got just four games to make up in the race, I think the 2016 World Series champions can dream bigger.

Despite standing third in the NL Central, there are many reasons to believe this team can win the division.

Let’s start with the teams in the Cubs’ way.

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1 ¹/₂ games back of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers entering Friday.

Despite the fact that we’re inundated with Elly De La Cruz highlights on a daily basis, the Cincinnati offense has been pretty mediocre.

They rank dead last in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and on top of that, their pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball during the month of July.

Andrew Abbott has shown some promise early in his big-league career, but it’s hard to see this team winning many games with Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver throwing meaningful innings.

Then, there’s first-place Milwaukee, which ranks fifth-worst in offensive production over the course of the season.

The Brewers have been a team heavily reliant upon pitching over the years.

While their arms are legitimate, they did struggle earlier this month — particularly in a series with the Cubs in which they allowed 19 runs in four games.

I am highly skeptical that such a one-dimensional team will run away with this race.

I think there’s a lot to like about the way the Cubs are playing.

They’re hitting .272 in the month of July with solid plate discipline numbers, and many of their success stories seem to be believable.

They’re penciling in journeyman Mike Tauchman as their everyday leadoff man, and his .271 expected batting average according to Statcast would indicate he hasn’t lucked into his hits.

Cody Bellinger is on track to post the best strikeout rate of his career, which has helped him reach base more often and has helped his power numbers increase.

Their arms have been wise to pitch to contact as well. Kyle Hendricks has experienced a career revitalization, as has Marcus Stroman, but it has been due to the men behind them in the field.

The Cubs grade out as a top-10 defense, according to Outs Above Average, and their infield ranks fifth.

Betting on Baseball?

So, with a stable of ground-ball pitchers, it seems this team is incredibly well constructed.

The Cubs have just 5 ¹/₂ games to make up on the Brewers with a couple of months to play, and there’s nothing to suggest that Chicago’s latest run has been a fluke.

In fact, given the construction of the staff, the defense and the way these hitters have put the bat on the ball, this has really been a long time coming.

I love the Cubs to surge in the second half and leapfrog two teams with major issues.

The bet: Cubs to win NL Central (+750, BetMGM)