MLB Predictions: 2024 Hinges On Captain Aaron Judge Avoiding Injury and Producing Consistently for New York Yankees

Essentially Sports recently had the opportunity to speak with Jim Callis from MLB Pipeline and former Mets GM Steve Phillips. Both see Aaron Judge as the likely AL MVP for 2024. Hearing this filled me with joy, but then a hint of worry crept in. Remembering the New York Yankees’ 2023 season, it was largely the Judge and Cole show.

This year, though, things are different. With players like Juan Soto joining the team, the Yankees aren’t as reliant on Judge. While it’s hard to imagine him not delivering (especially after what he’s shown even with a broken toe), the prospect of any setback for him is concerning. If that happens, it could significantly impact the team dynamics — and it’s something I hope we don’t have to face.

Aaron Judge unfazed by the weight of a $360 Million deal – so far…

In 2022, Aaron Judge made a bold move. He turned down a $230 million offer from the Yankees, betting on himself before hitting free agency. This decision raised eyebrows everywhere—fans, experts, and analysts. There was skepticism around this choice, especially considering that Judge was nearly 30 and aging. Yet, he was holding out for something bigger and longer.

So, how did Aaron Judge’s audacious self-bet pan out? In a word: spectacularly. He didn’t just meet expectations; he shattered them, along with Roger Maris’ longstanding American League record. By hitting an astounding 62 home runs, a feat that took 61 years to surpass, Judge didn’t just make headlines–he rewrote the history books. This remarkable achievement not only demonstrated his incredible ability to thrive under immense pressure but also solidified his place in baseball history.

This feat earned him a staggering $360 million deal over nine years. More than just numbers and contracts, though, this season marked a defining moment in Judge’s career. He stepped into a role that had been vacant for eight years since Derek Jeter’s retirement—the Yankees’ captain.

2023 Opening Day: Aaron Judge, facing the San Francisco Giants — the very team that could have been his new home if not for his decision to stick with the Yankees — stepped up to the plate. It was a storybook start, full of dreams and hopes. But the season took a surprising turn. Despite high expectations, the Yankees were knocked out in the regular season, finishing a disappointing 4th in the AL.

Only one dream for Captain Judge: Capturing the World Series

The last World Series the New York Yankees reached was in 2009. Aaron Judge has been around since 2016. And 2023 was his first ride as the Pinstripes captain, and the season went far from what he would’ve wanted. While it’s easy to blame external factors like the Dodgers’ poorly maintained stadium gate, the Yankees’ deeper issue was evident: their struggle to perform in the absence of their captain. This critical shortcoming made the disappointing season’s outcome almost predictable. Disappointed after an unfortunate elimination, Judge’s trip to the World Series was filled with disappointment: “We haven’t made it to the big dance in quite a few years, so we have got some work to do.”

But Captain Judge wasn’t going to sit quietly. Recognizing the need for change, he was determined to take action. Heading into 2024, most of the critical areas have already been addressed, setting the stage for a promising season.

Forecasting Aaron Judge’s 2024

Bryan Hoch from MLB.com makes a bold prediction for Aaron Judge in 2024: an attempt to break his own home run record. With Juan Soto providing support and being careful of any potential injury hazards, Judge aims to surpass his 62 home runs from 2022. Despite an injury-shortened 2023 season, where he missed 51 games but still hit 37 homers in just 106 games, Judge’s power remains undeniable. His performance puts him alongside Mark McGwire as one of the few Major Leaguers to achieve such a feat.

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