2024 MLB home run leader prediction, odds: Aaron Judge favored

Vegas oddsmakers are expecting a big year from Aaron Judge.

The Yankees slugger is a heavy favorite to lead the majors in home runs, sitting at +380 to get it done during the 2024 season, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Judge’s 43.5 home run over/under at FanDuel is two dingers more than the next-highest hitters, Matt Olson and Pete Alonso, who both sit at 41.5.

Olson led the majors with 54 homers last season, and those three are the only players with preseason totals of 40 long balls or more.

Judge has led the big leagues in homers just once throughout his eight-year career – that was, of course, during his historic 2022 season when he hit an American League record 62 home runs.

In 2017, Judge’s rookie season, he hit 52 long balls, which trailed only his now-teammate Giancarlo Stanton, who hit 59 as a member of the Miami Marlins.

Since that season, Judge has led all of baseball with 253 homers.

For this prop to hit, Judge will have to stay on the field, something he’s had a hard time with throughout his MLB career.

Judge has played in 120-plus games in just three of his six full seasons, leaving out the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season and his 2016 cup of coffee in the big leagues.

Last season, Judge played in just 106 games due to injuries to his hip and right toe, although he still managed to hit 37 bombs when in the lineup.

Olson and Alonso, Judge’s stiffest competition for the home run crown, have been about as healthy as you can get.

Both players have played in at least 150 games in each of the last three seasons.

Judge could get competition from his newest teammate, Juan Soto, who is +1700 to lead the majors in homers, the seventh-best odds at FanDuel.

Soto’s over/under is pegged at 35.5. A hit on the over would be a career-high for the four-time Silver Slugger award winner.

He hit a career-high 35 dingers last season while taking half of his at-bats in pitcher friendly Petco Park.

The move to the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium will give yet another shot at setting another career-high and possibly even cracking the 40-home run marker.