MLB Predictions & Odds 4/28/23

Philadelphia Phillies (12-13) vs. Houston Astros (14-11)
April 28, 2023 8:10 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Astros -200 / Philadelphia Phillies +155; Over/Under: +7
(Get latest betting odds)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros meet Friday in MLB action from Minute Maid Park. The Phillies are coming off a series versus the Mariners. After a split int he first two games, in the Thursday rubber match Philadelphia eked out a victory. As for Houston, they played the Rays this week and won two of three games. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place. 

Philadelphia Phillies 

The Phillies lost to the Mariners 5-3 on Tuesday but came back for a 6-5 win in game two. In the finale Philadelphia took the series with a 1-0 victory. Starting pitcher Matt Strahm put up 5.1 innings with two hits and five Ks. 

For the starter job in the Friday matchup the Phillies will send out Aaron Nola. This year over his five starts Nola is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 22 Ks in 28.1 innings. Nola is 79-64 with a 3.65 career ERA in 208 starts. 

Houston Astros 

Over on the Houston side, they lost 8-3 Monday to the Rays in the series opener. The Astros took the series with wins 5-0 Tuesday and 1-0 Wednesday however. In the finale, Houston starter Hunter Brown logged 7.0 clean frames with two hits and two walks. 

It’ll be Framber Valdez in the start for the Friday matchup. Over five starts this year Valdez is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 32.0 innings. Valdez has a 43-25 career record with a 3.31 ERA in 103 games (81 starts). 

The Phillies are 21-5 in their last 26 Friday games and 1-4 in their last five in game one of a series. Philadelphia is 2-8 in their last 10 versus a lefty starter.
Meanwhile, the Astros are 37-15 in their last 52 after an off day and 50-22 in their last 72 overall. Houston is 66-30 in their last 96 at home. 

ANDREW’S FREE PICK 

I’m going to stick with Houston. Valdez has done pretty well this year, and he’s got just six earned over his last three starts in a span of 20.0 innings. Valdez is 2-1 in that time, and I like him to keep it going here against Philadelphia. On Thursday the Phillies got a great pitching effort, holding the Mariners to just three hits. Philadelphia notched only four hits themselves however, so they’ll likely need to get the bats going a little better in this one. I don’t think they’ll ultimately be able to keep up with the Astros.