MLB Predictions & Odds 5/4/23

Atlanta Braves (20-10) vs. Miami Marlins (16-14)
May 4, 2023 4:10 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Marlins -115 / Atlanta Braves -105; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins meet in an NL East division matchup in MLB action from LoanDepot Park on Thursday. Let’s dive into the odds, starting pitching matchup, history and make a prediction for this game.

Odds

Miami is a -115 home favorite while Atlanta is a -105 road underdog. The total for this game is set at 8.5 runs.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Dylan Dodd will start for Atlanta and is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. Jesus Luzardo will start for the Marlins here and is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season.

Matchup History

Atlanta’s 14-6 win on Wednesday over the Marlins made it back-to-back wins and wins in 5 of the last 6 meetings for the Braves in this head-to-head matchup.

Trends

Atlanta is 14-3 in their last 17 road games and 38-16 in their last 54 road games against a team with a left-handed starter while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win. Miami is 15-37 in their last 52 division games and 1-4 in their last 5 game two matchups while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.

Pick

I’m backing the Marlins here. I liked the Braves initially before Max Fried’s start got pushed back to Friday, and Jesus Luzardo has been pretty much as good as advertised as the high-upside arm that the Marlins were hoping they were acquiring from Oakland in the past. Atlanta’s arguably the MLB’s best road team, but they can’t win them all and I think Miami steals one here.