Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7-9-23 MLB Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins meet in an NL East division matchup in MLB action from LoanDepot Park on Sunday. Let’s dive into the odds, starting pitching matchup, history and make a prediction for this game.

Odds

Miami is a -115 home favorite while Philadelphia is a -105 road underdog. The total for this game is set at 7.5 runs.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies and is 8-5 with a 4.30 ERA and 114 strikeouts this season. Jesus Luzardo will start for the Marlins and is 7-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 120 strikeouts this season. 

Matchup History

Miami’s 5-3 win over the Phillies on Saturday made it four wins in the last head-to-head meetings between these two teams. 

Trends

Philadelphia is 15-2 in their last 17 road games and 11-2 in their last 13 games against a team with a left-handed starter while the over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 division games. Miami is 1-4 in their last 5 division games and 1-4 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. 

Pick

I’m backing the Marlins here. I get why the Phillies would be worth a look with Aaron Nola pitching, but he’s been prone to giving up the one bad inning that does him and the Phillies in as well as giving up the home run and that’s not going to bode well against a Marlins team that continues to defy expectations and play with a certain swagger. The Phillies have been dynamite on the road, but the road winning streak is over and I think a new streak starts with back-to-back losses behind Jesus Luzardo who has been one of Miami’s best for a lot of the season. Give me the Fish here.