MLive’s score predictions for Michigan vs. Alabama in Rose Bowl

Michigan’s football team is hoping the third time’s the charm in the College Football Playoffs.

The 13-0 Wolverines are ranked No. 1 and are a small betting favorite against No. 4 Alabama (12-1) in the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl semifinal in Pasadena, Calif., but recent history is on the Crimson Tide’s side.

Nick Saban’s teams are 6-1 in the national semifinals, while Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines have lost each of the past two years. On paper, no team has been better than Michigan this season. It leads the nation in scoring defense and scoring margin, winning by an average of 27.1 points per game.

But Alabama has faced a tougher schedule, including knocking off previous No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship to leapfrog undefeated Florida State for the final playoff spot. Is this the year Michigan gets over the semifinal hurdle, or will Alabama continue its dominance on the national stage and win its 12th straight game since a September loss to Texas? Here are score predictions from MLive’s beat writers:

Every year is different, but it’s hard to ignore history. The SEC has dominated the CFP era and has produced six of the nine champions, including each of the past four. The Michigan-Georgia matchup at the 2021 Orange Bowl was expected to be close, but the Bulldogs bullied the Wolverines in a 34-11 win. This Michigan team is better than the 2021 version, in my opinion, and this Alabama squad isn’t as deep as 2021 Georgia, but I can’t justify picking against the SEC and Saban.

Michigan didn’t muster much offense in the Big Ten championship game against Iowa, and this Alabama defense is even more talented flush with future early-round draft picks. Plus, quarterback Jalen Milroe will present challenges that the Wolverines haven’t faced this year. I expect it to be close, but I think the wrong team is favored. Prediction: Alabama 24, Michigan 23

It’s tough to pick against Alabama in a bowl game. It’s tough to pick against this Michigan team. The Rose Bowl figures to be a highly competitive game between one team that’s been elite all season and another that took a little time to get there.

Still, I’m not fully sold on the Crimson Tide. They lost a home game (albeit to another playoff team, Texas). They needed a last-minute miracle to beat an Auburn team that had lost by 21 to New Mexico State the week before.

Michigan was the better team in last year’s playoff semifinal, against TCU, and lost anyway. It’s not possible to overlook Alabama, so that’s not a concern. I’m calling a big play on a punt -- maybe Michigan breaks off a long return or Alabama muffs one -- that swings the game. Prediction: Michigan 27, Alabama 24

Alabama has enough playmakers on the outside (edge, corner) to force Michigan into running the football, and I’m not convinced the Wolverines can do it with regularity. Certainly not enough to control the clock and tempo like they would prefer. And with all the uncertainty surrounding the offensive line, health of J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines’ track record in the CFP (0-2) and bowl games (1-6 under Jim Harbaugh), I lean to the Crimson Tide.

Expect a feeling out process early, then a back-and-forth, meatgrinder of a game. The team that pulls out one more explosive play wins the game. Prediction: Alabama 21, Michigan 17