Alabama vs. Michigan: Odds and Score Prediction for Rose Bowl 2024
The Michigan Wolverines will try to end their College Football Playoff semifinal struggle against the program with the most appearances in the playoff era.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will play in their 14th playoff game since the four-team format was introduced in 2014.
Nick Saban knows how to prepare his team for a big game, as we saw in the SEC Championship Game win over the Georgia Bulldogs.
Michigan's current group of players carries more experience from its back-to-back semifinal losses, and a strong case could be made that this year's version of the Wolverines is best equipped to make a run at the national championship.
Alabama has had some magical moments this season, but it was inconsistent for stretches, while Michigan did the same thing every week.
Michigan is only a slight favorite over Alabama despite its season-long dominance because of what the Crimson Tide did against Georgia.
Spread: Michigan -1.5
Over/Under: 45
Money Line: Michigan (-125; bet $125 to win $100); Alabama (+105; bet $100 to win $105)
Michigan is 7-5-1 against the spread this season, but it has not been as small of a favorite as it is for the Rose Bowl.
The lowest spread in favor of the Wolverines was the three-point spread for the win over the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Michigan covered against Ohio State and its other high-profile Big Ten clash with the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Alabama went 9-4 ATS this season. It was an underdog once in the SEC Championship Game.
The Crimson Tide went 9-3-1 to the over, while Michigan was 6-6-1 to the over. The disparity is not surprising given Michigan's defensive dominance in most games.
Alabama has not had one of its games close with a total at 45 points or fewer all season. The total on Michigan games has consistently been in the 40s since October.
The Rose Bowl over seems to be likely to hit if Alabama wins, while another defensive masterclass from the Wolverines could keep the game under.
Michigan 27, Alabama 20
No team moved the ball with ease for four quarters against the Michigan defense this season.
Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide will experience some tough drives, but scoring on the Wolverines is not an impossible task.
Ohio State and the Maryland Terrapins each put up 24 points on the Wolverines, who conceded 28 combined points in the two prior weeks.
Alabama has not held an FBS opponent under 20 points since its September 24 win over the Ole Miss Rebels.
Michigan should score on the Alabama defense, and it is just a matter of if it does it primarily on the ground behind Blake Corum, or if J.J. McCarthy chips in with a few big throws.
McCarthy's experience from last year's playoff semifinal and from winning tight Big Ten games in the last two seasons could end up as the X-factor for Michigan in a battle against Milroe, who has been more inconsistent at points of the season.
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