MLS Predictions, Odds Week 3: Portland vs St Louis City, Nashville vs Montreal & More MLS Picks

MLS Predictions Week 3

When making your MLS picks for Week 3, be sure to check the lineups for the five MLS teams that participated in the CCL this past week. Each of Austin, Philadelphia, Orlando, Vancouver and LAFC played in Round of 16 Leg 1 ties last week. Leg 2 will continue this week, meaning it’s very likely all of the teams will rotate their lineups in some way. When it comes to Philly and Austin, both play Leg 2 on Tuesday, giving a very short turnaround from their MLS matches on Saturday.

Portland Timbers vs St Louis City SC Prediction

The Timbers are 1-0-1 after two weeks after a 1-0 win at home to SKC and a 3-2 loss on the road to LAFC. Now they’ll take on the surprisingly undefeated expansion side of St Louis City SC in Week 3.

St Louis has started their MLS journey off on fire with 3-2 and 3-1 wins over Austin and Charlotte respectively. Last week they opened CITYPARK in front of a sold-out crowd of 22,423.

It will be hard for STL to replicate the excitement from playing in their first-ever home game last week. And while they have scored the joint-most goals (6) in the league through two weeks, they have massively outperformed an xG of just 3.0. They’ve certainly been lucky, with penalties, own goals and horrendous back passes and giveaways from their opponents. But wins are wins, and when you’re two games into your existence, undefeated and leading the league in scoring, you’ll take it. That confidence should bode well as they go into Providence Park to take on the Timbers.

Portland hasn’t created a ton of shots, with just 17 shots and nine on target through two games. But they do have $10 million man Evander in the midfield who got his first goal in MLS last weekend and new forward Franck Boli from Ferencvaros who could potentially debut.

Portland at home will be a tough out. But they’ve also given up 26 shots and eight on target to their opponents. I don’t see St Louis keeping a clean sheet but they’ve been creating enough chaos out there with their direct style of play that they’re getting scoring opportunities themselves. Plus, it’s a game taking place at 10:30 pm EST Saturday night, which gives us all the makings of some MLS After Dark silliness.

• Portland Timbers vs St Louis City SC Prediction: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (+100), risk 1 unit at Bet365

Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Prediction

Only four teams in MLS have failed to find the back of the net after two weeks and one of those is Montreal. CF Montreal lost 2-0 in Miami in Week 1 and lost 1-0 in Austin in Week 2, giving up a late 88′ winner. Montreal has put eight shots on target and has created 2.2 expected goals, but they don’t really have the finishers right now. From an xGA perspective, Montreal ranks 28th at 4.4—only Colorado ranks worse at 4.6.

Nashville has taken four points from playing both New York teams so far. It was a 2-0 win over NYCFC, followed by a 0-0 draw at Red Bull Arena last week.

The Yotes’ offense isn’t the most lethal in MLS either. They’ve managed only four shots on target over two games. Only Orlando and Chicago with one shot on target rank worse. However, defensively they’ve been solid keeping two clean sheets, allowing only five shots on target and sitting in a three-way tie (PHI, MIN) for the lowest xGA at 1.0.

Nashville has also had Montreal’s number over their short history in the league being undefeated at 3-2-0, plus another pre-season win as well. I can’t see a Montreal win in this Nashville vs Montreal pick. But Hany Mukhtar has yet to play a full half for Nashville coming back from injury and without him, the Nashville offense lacks much punch. Also, throw in the fact that Montreal could be without Samuel Piette and Romell Quioto who left injured last week, and there aren’t many places to see goals coming from in this one.

• Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Prediction: Under 2.5 (-120), risk 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

MLS Week 3 Parlay Picks

Here’s a two-teamer for this weekend as part of your MLS predictions.

Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United Prediction

Charlotte started the season with a 1-0 loss at home to New England, before then falling 3-1 in St Louis last week. Atlanta has four points in two games having defeated San Jose 2-1 in Week 1 and drawing 1-1 with Toronto in Week 2.

Charlotte may only have one goal on the season but they did score against Atlanta in both matches last season losing 2-1 in Atlanta and winning 1-0 in Charlotte.

And Atlanta’s road woes are well documented. In their past 15 road MLS games they have just one win. The Five stripes have also allowed at least one goal in 13 of those 15 matches. If you want to include preseason, Atlanta’s defense looks even worse. In six games during 2023 so far, they’ve allowed 13 goals. They’ve also seen both teams scoring in each of their past eight across all competitions dating back into last season.

In front of a crowd of likely 60,000-plus, I think Charlotte finds the scoresheet in our Charlotte vs Atlanta picks.

Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew Prediction

It’s the home opener for TFC and a chance to collect their first win of the 2023 season. They were minutes away from winning in DC in Week 1, but coughed up a 2-1 lead in stoppage time and lost 3-2. Then last week, down Lorenzo Insigne (hamstring), plus some more injured players, they resorted to a more defensive style and let Federico Bernardeschi do Bernardeschi things, with the Italian scoring Toronto’s only goal in a 1-1 draw in Atlanta.

There was good news in the TFC camp this week as the 31-year-old Insigne was back in training and looking like he’ll be available for Saturday’s match. That’s welcome news after two strikers, Ayo Akinola and Adama Diomande both left last week’s match with hamstring injuries of their own.

After a 4-1 opening-day loss in Philadelphia, the Crew responded with a 2-0 home win over DC last week led by two goals from Lucas Zelarayan. These teams played twice last season and the Crew won both 2-1. In fact, they’ve won each of the past three meetings by that scoreline. Wilfred Nancy is now the coach of Columbus, previously being with Montreal, so he’s well aware of what to expect from this TFC team. Montreal won two of three meetings with Toronto last year, including the most recent, 4-3, last September.