MLS Week 11 Picks, Odds & Predictions

Sports Betting Dime

05 May 2023

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Prediction

I went against Miami last week, backing Columbus to win at home, and got smacked right in the face with an unexpected 2-1 road win by the Herons. That snapped a six-game losing streak in the league where they had scored just twice and been shut out five times during that stretch.

But if you include the US Open Cup, Miami has now scored multiple goals in back-to-back games. What I’m more interested in though is their goalscoring at home at DRV PNK Stadium. Miami has won two and lost two at home so far, but have scored two goals in three of those four games.

Looking further back, outside of their last home game against Dallas, a 1-0 loss, they had scored a goal in 18 consecutive games prior at home. In 15 of those 18 games they had scored multiple goals.

Atlanta came out of the gate scorching hot, but have cooled off a bit of late with just one win in four. But they’re still one of the highest “Over” teams this season at 7-3 to Over 2.5 totals.

They’ve scored in every single game thus far, but have only kept two clean sheets. That makes bets on both teams to score 8-2 in Five Stripes’ games this season.

I don’t see Miami shutting down Atlanta’s second-ranked offense (19 goals). But Atlanta is just 1-2-2 away from home and have conceded 12 goals in those five games. They’ve also only won twice in their past 20 road games going back into last season.

MLS Predictions: Both teams to score (-160), risk 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction

The shine has come off Seattle just a little in the past few weeks. They blew a second half lead in Portland and lost 4-1. They eeked out a 1-0 win over Minnesota and then drew 0-0 in Salt Lake last week. They’re also down Raul Ruidiaz for the foreseable future with injury.

But a home date against Sporting KC could allow Seattle to get their swagger back. SKC are still winless on the season at 0-3-7. What’s even worse is they can’t score to save their lives with only three goals scored so far. They lost 2-0 last week to another awful team in CF Montreal. It was the seventh time this season they’ve been held off the scoresheet.

Going back into last season SKC is now winless in 11 games overall and also winless in 12 straight on the road. They have just two wins in their past 25 road games as well.

This is a quick rematch of an earlier meeting between the teams this season back in March when the Sounders won 4-1 in Kansas City. William Agada got Sporting on the board early in that one scoring five minutes in, but what followed was a four-goal performance by Jordan Morris, to go with three assists from Leo Chu.

Seattle is top of the West and third overall in all of MLS. Their seven goals conceded is only bested by the six of both LAFC and Nashville. That doesn’t bode well for a porous SKC attack. The Sounders are 8-3-1 in their past 11 at Lumen Field and should bump that to 11 wins by the end of the weekend.

MLS Predictions: Seattle to win (-150), risk 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

MLS Week 11 Parlay Picks

Here’s a two-teamer for this weekend as part of your MLS Week 11 picks.

San Jose Earthquakes vs LAFC

They’re on the road and coming off a midweek CCL win over Philadelphia, but LAFC are still undefeated this season at 5-3-0 and have only allowed six goals.

The Earthquakes are improved this season and are currently fifth in the West at 4-3-3. They’re scoring goals, but also conceding goals as they’ve scored and conceded 13 each. At home San Jose is still undefeated at 4-1-0 and have actually only conceded twice. So playing on the road has been their weakness.

The home team has won each of the past six games in this matchup and LAFC haven’t won in San Jose since 2019. Given that history and the short week for LAFC I won’t back them to win. But until they lose I’m riding them at least on the double chance (win or draw).

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Minnesota United

If you look at goal totals of 2.5, each of these teams are 6-3 to Under 2.5 totals this season.

With 0-0, 0-0 and 1-0 (L) scorelines in their past three, that bet has been hot in Whitecaps’ games.

For the Loons, they’ve cashed back-to-back Under 2.5 tickets with a 0-0 draw and 1-0 loss.

A bet on Under 2.5 may be enough in this parlay or even as a single play at -105. But for this parlay we’ll play it even safer and include Under 3.5 at -280.

Vancouver is 8-1 to Under 3.5 totals, while Minnesota is a perfect 9-0.

Minnesota has scored only eight goals this season, but have also only allowed eight.

From an xGA perspective these are two of those top teams in MLS. Vancouver’s xGA of 9.7 ranks third, while Minnesota’s 9.9 is fourth.

Looking at shot statistics, Minnesota’s 28 shots on target are 26th overall and both teams are among the league’s best at allowing shots on target. Minnesota ranks first with just 25 shots allowed on target and Vancouver fifth allowing just 30.

It was 1-1 when these teams met back in March, and we’ll back another low-scoring affair with these teams on the pitch for our MLS Week 11 picks.