MLS Picks, Predictions & Odds for Week 14

St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction

After opening their expansion season with five wins, St. Louis only has one win in their past six games, but still sit fourth in the West with 19 points.

That’s far above their Week 14 opponents Sporting Kansas City who are 2-4-7, 10 points and 13th in the conference.

St. Louis has lost three straight across all comps and two in a row to Chicago in both league play and the US Open Cup. St. Louis’ goalscoring has dropped. From 15 goals in their first five MLS matches, to seven in their next six, and five of those coming in one 5-1 win. Yet still, they’ve scored in 3/4, 8/11 and in 4/5 at home. Some of their recent goalscoring issues have been due to the absense of leading scorer Joao Klauss who’s been out since April 22. However, Klauss was in training this week and is listed as questionable on the MLS injury reports.

Peter Vermes is getting injured pieces back to his lineup as well in Kansas City and the team has been slowly improving in recent weeks. Sporting pulled a shock 2-1 home win over Seattle in Week 11 and followed that up with a 3-0 home win Minnesota. In midweek play they went into Los Angeles and drew 1-1 with LAFC.

In ��������������'�� ���������� ������������ ��������, even the amateur squads were good enough to bring home the U.S. Open Cup.#AllForCITY x @mohistorymuseumpic.twitter.com/J38EKvVbn8

— St Louis CITY SC (@stlCITYsc) May 16, 2023

These teams are just four hours away from eachother playing in Kansas and Missouri and while they haven’t played in MLS yet, there is still a huge rivalry between them.

Home matches in St. Louis are 4-1 to Over 2.5 totals this season. With an electic atmosphere, Klauss possibly featuring and SKC beginning to round into form in time for this rivalry, I think we see an entertaining match with plenty of goals.

• MLS Picks: Both teams to score & over 2.5 (+100), risk 1 unit at Bet365

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Prediction

It’s rare to not see goals in Hell Is Real. Scorelines last season were 2-2 and 2-0 (CLB). In 2021 they were 2-2 and 3-2 (CLB). And in 2020 they were 2-1 (CIN) and 3-0 (CLB).

It is rare to see a road team winning though. A road team hasn’t won in any of the past seven meetings. That’s bad news for a Columbus team that has just one road win in their past 12 going back to last July. They have though, managed to scored a goal in 13/14 road games, with that streak just ending in their last road game in Charlotte.

After a 3-0 win at home to Montreal, FCC is tops in the Supporters’ Shield standings with 27 points and they’re still perfect at TQL Stadium at 7-0-0. At home they’ve scored 12 goals compared to just three conceded.

But the Crew are the league’s highest scoring team with 23 goals. They won 2-0 at home to the Galaxy in midweek, marking the sixth time they’ve scored multiple goals this season. They’ve scored at least once in 11 of their 12 games.

Cincinnati hasn’t lost in their last four home games versus Columbus but the Crew have lost just one in ten MLS head-to-heads with Cincy. Something has to give. I see a goal from each side for my Week 14 MLS picks here.

• MLS Picks: Both teams to score (-134), risk 1 unit at Bet365

New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal Prediction

Montreal recently defeated NYRB 2-0 at home. But that was at home and this time they’ll be on the road where they are a woeful 1-0-6, with a -15 goal-differential. CF Montreal had been riding a four-match winning streak in MLS and six-match winning streak across all comps heading into their midweek game with Cincinnati. Those streaks came to a crashing halt as they fell behind 2-0 26′ minutes into the game on their way to a 3-0 defeat.

While that match went over the total of 2.5, Montreal has played to many Unders this season at 8-4. Low-scoring games are nothing new to the Red Bulls who are 12-1 to Under 2.5 totals after Wednesday’s 0-0 draw in Toronto.

Red Bulls’ matches average the lowest total goals per game at just 1.5. Their xGA of 10.1 ranks first in the league and they’re first in both opponent shot attempts and shots on target.

New York has allowed 88 shot attempts with the next lowest being LAFC with 112. Their 30 shots on target allowed is five better than Philly’s 35.

Montreal owns the lowest xG (11.8) in the East and 27th ranked in the league. Their 40 shots on target is only better than three teams (Chicago, San Jose and Houston).

The Red Bulls have thrre straight clean sheets overall under new head coach Troy Lesesne. Meanwhile, Montreal has either been shut out or shut out their opponents in 11/12 games so far. That makes betting both teams to score “No” in Montreal games 11-1, but we’ll just back the Under in our MLS predictions for this one.

• MLS Picks: Under 2.5 (-150), risk 1 unit at Bet365

FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo Prediction

Dallas is strong at home. They’re 4-1-1 and just won 2-1 over Vancouver on Wednesday.

Houston is poor on the road. They’re 0-1-4, have only scored three road goals, are the only team with just one away point and just lost 1-0 in Minnesota on Wednesday.

A road team winning in this rivalry is like seeing the Yeti. You just don’t see it. It hasn’t happened since 2017 over the course of the past 17 head-to-heads. Throw in three preseason games and that streak is 20.

You do see goals though. Last year Dallas won 2-1 and the teams also drew 2-2. In 2021 Houston won 3-2 and the teams also drew 2-2 and 1-1. They played in the preseason this year and the Dynamo won 2-0 at home, for whatever preseason play is worth.

Dallas rarely allows more than one goal when playing at home. It’s been 16 games at Toyota Stadium since they allowed more than a single goal. But they do allow a single goal often. Of those 16 games, they’ve conceded in 14 of them, as well as in 14 of 16.

Given the home team’s success in this rivalry, Houston’s current poor road form and Jesus Ferreira being hot with three goals in two games for FCD, I’ll back a Dallas win for my MLS picks.