Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Winnipeg Jets will do their best to keep pace with the Avalanche for the top spot in the Central Division as they host the Montreal Canadiens on Monday at 7:30 p.m. EST in MTS Centre. Winnipeg is two points behind Colorado with 36, but they have played one less game compared to the Avalanche. Montreal is currently 7th in the Atlantic Division with 28 points through 29 games. Winnipeg are heavy favorites at a -214 money line while the total is set at an even six goals.
Montreal Meltdown
Montreal lost in a shootout to the Pittsburgh Penguins in their most recent contest by a score of 4-3. Sean Monahan, David Savard, and Jayden Struble scored a goal each for the Canadiens while Mike Matheson had five shots on goal and an assist. Cole Caufield had a team-high six shots on goal while Sam Montembeault stopped 27 of 30 shots.
Montreal this season looks about the same as they were last year offensively. In the 29 games they have played, the Canadiens are scoring an average of 2.62 goals per game (28th in the league), shooting an average of 29.2 times per contest (27th), and have a success rate of 17% on the power play. Nick Suzuki has a team-high 23 points in 29 games and has the lead in assists with 15. Sean Monahan has the most goals scored with nine and Jake Evans has the best +/- among forwards with a +5. Josh Anderson has the most penalty minutes among forwards with 31. Suzuki is the only offensive skater to average more than 20 minutes on the ice per contest while Caufield has a team-high 111 shots to his name. Suzuki and Monahan are tied for the most power play goals with five while Caufield and Suzuki are tied with seven power play assists each.
Mike Matheson has arguably been the most productive player for the Canadiens. He has the most ice time by far with an average of 25:16 minutes a game while also securing the most goals and assists among defenders. He has scored the most goals on the power play among defenders and also has the most power play assists among all players with nine. To put the cherry on top, Matheson is second overall on the team in shots with 71. Jonathan Kovacevic is leading the defense in +/- with a +4 and Arber Xhekaj already has 47 penalty minutes on the year. A tandem of Montembeault, Jake Allen, and Cayden Primeau have all gotten at least one start to replace the legacy of Carey Price in net. So far, Montembeault has done the best with a 2.78 GAA and a 91.1% save percentage in nine games started. As a unit, Montreal is 24th with an average of 3.38 goals against, but they are 31st in penalty killing and 29th shots against with a 72.4% kill rate and 34.4 shots per game. Montreal has seven players on the injury report, including Carey Price despite his decision to step away from the game after a terrific career. All are out long-term, but Jordan Harris is the closest to returning with a projected return date in late December.
Jets Going Up
Winnipeg won their most recent contest against the Los Angeles Kings by a score of 5-2. Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele each scored twice for the Jets while Gabriel Vilardi scored the other goal and had three assists on the day. Ehlers also had a pair of assists while Connor Hellebuyck made 32 saves on 34 shot attempts.
The Jets are currently 14th in the league in scoring and 14th in shots, averaging 3.25 goals and earning 30.8 shots per game. However, their power play and face-off percentage need to be better, as they are converting on only 16.3% of their opportunities with a man advantage and 46.7% in the face-off circle. The production on offense has been better than last year, and there is still room to grow for this team. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifle are in a fight for for the team lead in points, but Scheifle has the advantage right now with 31. Connor has a team-high 17 goals while Mark Scheifele leads the squad with 20 assists. Unfortunately, Scheifele also leads the forwards in penalty minutes with 20 while Vladislav Namestnikov has the best +/- among forwards with a +12. Scheifle has the most ice time among offensive skaters with an average of 21:03 per game while also leading the team in power play goals with four. Connor has the most shots on the squad with 102 and the most power play assists with seven. If the depth pieces can establish themselves as the season goes along, Winnipeg could be a sneaky team to beat in the final months of the season.
Defensively, the Jets are led by the goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. In his 21 starts on the year, he has 14 wins and six regulation losses with a 2.43 GAA and an 91.6% save percentage. The Jets are ranked 7th in shots against, averaging only 28.9 shots surrendered per game. Their penalty kill is 27th in the NHL with an 75.3% kill rate and they are giving up 2.61 goals per contest, good for 6th in the league. Josh Morrissey has logged the most ice time on average with 24:35, and he has been productive when on it. He leads not only defenders, but almost everyone else on the squad with 19 assists including seven power play assists. Brenden Dillon has 40 minutes already in the box while Dylan Demelo has the the highest +/- ratio among defenders with a +15. Morrissey also has the most shots among defenders with 74, most goals among defenders with five, and the only blue-liner to earn a power play goal so far. While Connor, Rasmus Kupari, and Ville Heinola are the only players listed on the injury report for the Jets, head coach Bowness recently returned the team after he had to take a leave of absence to tend to his ailing wife. Connor is out until February with a knee injury, Kupari is out until late December with a shoulder issue, and Heinola is not expected to return until January with a fractured ankle.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
This feels like a trap game for Winnipeg, as they recently were victorious against two potential Western Conference playoff opponents in their last two games. This might be the contest where they take their foot off the gas a bit. Montreal has been able to score three goals or more in their last three of four games and they have performed better on the road compared to at home. Montreal has also won their last two meetings, including in January of 2023 when they were +223 money line underdogs. While I don't have enough confidence to think they'll win, I believe they will keep the game close enough to cover the spread, as the Canadiens are 14-11 against the spread this season.
Prediction: Montreal Canadiens +1.5 (-135)
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Both teams have totaled 15 goals each in their last two games and in their last ten meetings, these squads have scored six or more goals in six contests. Winnipeg has scored at least four goals in four of their last five contests, and I feel confident they will reach that plateau again against a defense that ranks as one of the lowest on the penalty kill and shots against. The Jets have proved they can score against the elite defenses, even with one of their main weapons in Kyle Connor out and Montreal has shown some fight these past few games. I believe the Canadiens can score at least two to reach the over in this contest.
Prediction: Over 6.5
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