MSU football at Rutgers: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State's football game at Rutgers (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten), Noon Saturday. TV: Big Ten Network. Betting line: Rutgers -5
1. MSU’s quarterback, presumably the starting debut of Katin Houser
Harlon Barnett didn’t come out and say it, but he essentially did: Redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser will make his first start at Rutgers. The move to Houser comes because Michigan State needs more juice from its offense and to better take care of the ball. The question is whether Houser can provide those things. The evidence so far is incomplete. In his two series against power-five competition, he led a touchdown drive against Washington’s second unit and then, against Maryland, moved the team down the field but threw an interception on a screen pass in the red zone.
This Saturday is a more fair look. Houser’s had more than a week to prepare as MSU’s starter. The game plan is for him. The scoreboard is 0-0. It’s not an easy challenge, but better than making your first start a week later against Michigan. Rutgers' defense is only allowing 165 passing yards and 14.7 points per game. The Scarlet Knights’ issues have been on the other side of the ball. If Houser can get MSU's offense moving and finishing drives at Rutgers, he’ll be able to do it against most of the Big Ten.
2. Can MSU run the football?
The Spartans have been better this season running the football, especially with Nathan Carter rushing behind the left side of the offensive line. MSU needs to run the ball in this game. The Spartans will have a young, first-time starting QB, facing a Rutgers’ defense that doesn’t bend much. Even the Scarlet Knights' defensive stats in a 31-7 loss to Michigan were sound.
The two teams that have beaten Rutgers, Michigan and Wisconsin, have each rushed for just over 200 yards and between 4.6 and 5.0 yards per carry. Nobody yet has torched the Scarlet Knights through the air. For MSU to sustain drives and put up enough offense to win, it'll have to have success on the ground Saturday. For Houser and the passing game to have a chance, the Spartans must create balance. Carter is a 5.1 yards-per-carry back to this point. Ride him.
3. The best way to defend Rutgers and Scarlet Knights QB Gavin Wimsatt
Rutgers’ weakness is its passing game and when QB Gavin Wimsatt has to win the down with his arm and decisions. As a runner, he’s dangerous. But his pick-six last week at Wisconsin just before halftime illustrated Rutgers' biggest vulnerability. Wimsatt played the best passing game of his career last season against MSU — which, in hindsight, was telling of the Spartans’ defense. MSU shouldn’t let that determine the game plan. You want him throwing the ball. Play the run, keep spies on him when he drops back to pass and make him beat you with his arm.
4. How MSU finishes the game
Bad teams find ways to lose games. And at Iowa, MSU had the look and feel of that sort of team. The Spartans have to shake that before it’s firmly part of their DNA. The presumed change at quarterback will shake things up a bit. Rutgers is decent team, but flawed enough offensively that the Scarlet Knights aren’t likely to run away with this game. In other words, whether MSU wins or loses will likely come down to how it executes in the fourth quarter. If the Spartans want to change their season, it has to happen Saturday.
5. The weather
For the first time this season, MSU is likely to play in a game impacted by weather. The forecast calls for showers and/or steady rain Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. The wind isn’t supposed to be too bad. But if this game is a wet mess, it’ll be even more imperative that the Spartans win in the trenches. They should game plan for the conditions.
Prediction
It’s hard to believe in either of these offenses. In Rutgers’ three Big Ten games, it’s rushed for just 3.0 yards per carry and thrown for an average of 184 yards, with QB Gavin Wimsatt completing 52% of his passes. MSU, meanwhile, has scored two offensive touchdowns in its three games against power-five competition and one of those came in garbage time. There’s no way to know how Katin Houser will respond to what’s presumed to be his start at quarterback. But this MSU team has been through it, stuck together for the most part, and is coming off a needed bye week. If this season is going have any joy in it for MSU, it’ll begin Saturday in Piscataway.
