MSU at Ohio State football: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State's football game at Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten), 7:33 p.m. Saturday. TV: NBC. Betting line: Ohio State -31.5
1. Is Sam Leavitt available?
Michigan State’s offense has done very little to suggest it’ll have enough juice to put a scare into an Ohio State defense that ranks second in the country, behind only Michigan, in points allowed (10.7 per game) and is in the top five in total defense (271 yards per game). The only signs of hope for more from MSU have been when true freshman Sam Leavitt is at quarterback. That doesn’t mean this can’t be a moment of growth for redshirt freshman Katin Houser, who’s still a young quarterback himself. But Leavitt looks like he comes with more upside.
If Leavitt takes a snap this Saturday, he will have burned his redshirt season. I’ll be surprised if does. But if he does, MSU owes it to him to give him significant playing time — more than last week’s two drives, one of which ended in a touchdown pass. MSU’s only shot, based on all the evidence at hand, is if Leavitt makes himself available and MSU’s coaches take full advantage. Because while he might he more prone to turnovers or mistakes, he’s also shown he might just have the playmaking ability to get something done against good defenses. MSU's offense is short on playmakers. It needs its QB to be one.
2. Is MSU’s defense up to this?
Since the Spartans’ disastrous outing against Washington in Week 3 and the first half against Maryland a week later, MSU’s defense has largely been pretty sound, allowing less than 300 total yards in three separate games and coming up with multiple turnovers in four of them. It helps, however, that the Spartans have faced some poor passing QBs in those games. While Ohio State isn’t as dynamic at the position as it's been in recent years, Kyle McCord, in Big Ten games, is still the league’s second-most efficient passer and second in passing yards and he has the best receiver in the country in Marvin Harrison Jr. at his disposal. Ohio State also has a healthy Treveyon Henderson at running back again. Henderson, averaging 6.5 yards per carry this season, has been his old destructive self in the backfield the last two games. We’ll find out if MSU’s defense is making progress or just good enough to hold up against the offensively limited teams that make up most of the Big Ten.
3. How ornery and dialed in is Ohio State?
MSU never seems to play Ohio State at a good time or catch the Buckeyes off guard. Not in recent years, at least. That’s part of why these contests have been so lopsided. Ohio State is coming off a 35-16 win at Rutgers that was closer for a long while than the final score. The Buckeyes also weren’t overwhelming against Indiana or Maryland. But, at night, at home, with all that’s going on in the Big Ten, a few hours after Michigan and Penn State play, understanding where things stand in the league, I expect a full-throttle effort, with intent to destroy their opponent. The Spartans’ best shot at keeping this competitive might be that Ohio State doesn’t see them as a threat. I just can’t imagine any mercy in this setting.
4. Is Maliq Carr capable of having a moment?
MSU will need its offense to be something it hasn’t been. Beyond the Sam Leavitt situation, the best chance of that happening is for a player to do something they haven’t done. The best chance for that is tight end Maliq Carr, who’s expected back after missing time with an injury. Carr has had a disappointing season and, to this point, hasn’t lived up to his potential. Counting on him to be great against Ohio State would be foolish. But this is not about a sure thing. This is about what gives MSU a chance to be something more than we’ve seen. And Carr is that. We saw it early at Iowa before he got hurt. We’ve seen it once in a while. He is that athlete that can be a difference-maker no matter the competition level. MSU doesn’t have many of those offensively, if any. If Carr wants to be in the NFL next season, he can still do it with three memorable games that make his talent too intriguing to pass up on as a middle-round draft pick. But it would have to start at Ohio State.
5. Getting something positive out of the first quarter
MSU’s losses this season against the first two elite teams on its schedule were clear mismatches from jump. The Spartans trailed Washington 35-0 at halftime and Michigan 28-0. Both games were 14-0 after the first quarter, with no hope things would turn in MSU’s favor. The Spartans have to find a way to get through the first quarter without the game being decided — both on the scoreboard and in feel. MSU needs an early drive that produces points, a three-and-out defensively that shows Ohio State that the Spartans’ defense came to play … a couple developments like that. Beating Nebraska last week was needed relief and momentary joy, but I don’t know that this MSU team believes it can battle the Buckeyes. Some positive happenings in the first quarter would go a long way toward giving the Spartans confidence that they can stay in this fight.
Prediction
I do believe MSU’s defense is continuing to improve, to the point the Spartans might not get steamrolled out of the gate. I don’t believe in MSU’s offense. And, in time, by the second quarter, that’ll be a problem Saturday night. At some point, the floodgates will open.
