Nakashima vs. Shapovalov French Open picks and odds: Fade struggling Canadian
Denis Shapovalov faces Brandon Nakashima in his opening match at the French Open.
The pregame narrative: Shapovalov hasn’t had any sort of success on clay this year, which is concerning ahead of his match against Nakashima. We’re looking to fade the Canadian on a pair of markets at Roland Garros.
Tennis odds as of 11:54 a.m. on 05/28/2023.
Nakashima vs. Shapovalov French Open picks
Best Bet: Nakashima to win (-127)
One of these players has shown us something positive on clay this year, while the other has barely shown us anything at all.
Nakashima is at least demonstrating some signs of strong play on the surface entering this tournament. He’s won three of his last four matches, advancing to the semifinals at Lyon and improving to a serviceable 3-3 on the clay courts this year.
Shapovalov, meanwhile, really hasn’t shown us anything. His poor performance on the surface has led to a 1-2 record and consecutive losses ahead of this match.
This isn’t the first time these two have met at a Grand Slam, either. Shapovalov lost to Nakashima in four sets at last year’s Wimbledon.
We’ll also happily take the player who has the far more impressive tool in his tool belt, which is Nakashima’s impressive serving skills. His 282.5 serve rating across all surfaces is 14th, per ATPTour.com.
Even if clay doesn’t necessarily favour the big servers, it’s still a plus to have that kind of ability.
Key stat: Shapovalov has lost eight of his last 11 matches.
Quick pick
Shapovalov under 19.5 games won (-113): In addition to losing outright, we’ll also wager that Shapovalov wins fewer than 19 games.
This will be the Canadian’s eighth match at this tournament, and his track record isn’t overly encouraging. The 24-year-old has failed to win 20 games or more in four of his seven previous matches at Roland Garros. Unsurprisingly, he has never advanced past the second round.
Nakashima, 21, qualified for the third round at the French Open last year.
