French Open tennis betting tips: Best bets, previews, picks and analysis from Roland Garros

Tennis betting tips: French Open

1.5pts Brandon Nakashima to beat Denis Shapovalov at 4/5 (General)

1pt Fabio Fognini to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime at 5/2 (General)

1.5pts Christopher O’Connell (-3.5) to beat Taro Daniel on the game handicap at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Jack Draper to beat Tomas Etcheverry at 11/10 (General)

1pt Bernada Pera to beat Anett Kontaveit at 19/20 (William Hill)

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Fabio Fognini

Seed Auger-Aliassime could be vulnerable here.

He’s played just three matches on clay this season, winning one – against the world number 240.

Worryingly, the Canadian was last seen leaving Lyon with a shoulder injury and given his recent lack of matchplay, that was surely a problem which was of real concern.

Fognini beat Andy Murray and an in-form Miomir Kecmanovic in Rome recently but key for me here is that he’s nearing the end of his career and this may be his last chance on a big stage like this – the match is taking place on the third showcourt at Roland Garros, Court Simonne-Mathieu.

Expect him to get the fans involved – he’s certainly an entertainer – and try to use that to his advantage.

FAA has twice lost in the first round in three visits to Roland Garros, while last year he had to come from two sets down to avoid a third. He’s struggled in the early rounds at some of the other Slams too so Fognini looks worth chancing as a long shot here.

Brandon Nakashima v Denis Shapovalov

Nakashima caught the eye in Lyon last week with some good performances on the clay and I fancy him to come through this one.

The American made it through to the semis and only lost to eventual champion Arthur Fils in a final-set tie-break.

It’s been a season of injury niggles for Shapovalov and only a couple of weeks ago he withdrew from Rome citing knee pain.

I think he’ll struggle on return with Nakashima strong with the balls in his hand, while movement is key on this surface so if the knee is still an issue, it could be a tough day for the Canadian.

Christopher O’Connell v Taro Daniel

I mentioned O’Connell’s impressive form in last week’s outright preview and he was looking good at a big price until he blew up from a set and a break up against Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-finals.

Still, that could be a good thing in terms of this match with more practice down at a lower altitude in Paris, while the fact remains he’s notched up some good results of late, most notably beating Alex Zverev in Munich.

Daniel prefers the faster surfaces and has gone just 4-6 at all levels on clay this spring – none of the wins has come at tour level.

I’m surprised O’Connell isn’t shorter and to bump up his price to even money, I’ll back him to cover the 3.5-game handicap.

Jack Draper v Tomas Etcheverry

There’s always a worry about Draper’s injury record when looking at his matches but he seemed OK in Lyon last week on his latest comeback, beating Alexandre Muller and Miomir Kecmanovic before taking a set off an in-from Francisco Cerundolo.

He has major weapons – think serve and forehand – which are capable of dictating, even on clay, and I expect him to punch holes in Etcheverry’s defence.

The Argentine hasn’t been playing badly but we’ve seen over the past couple of years that Draper is capable of beating some of the best players in the world and I think he’s worthy of support here as the underdog.

Anett Kontaveit v Bernarda Pera

Kontaveit has played only 13 matches in 2023 and coming into this match rusty doesn’t look a good plan.

Clay has never been her forte and in the current clay swing she’s suffered heavy defeats to Ludmila Samsonova and Karolina Muchova.

OK, those aren’t awful results but Kontaveit has also lost in round one on three of her last four visits to Roland Garros.

Pera is a player more at home on this surface and proved it when the pair met in Hamburg last season, winning 6-2 6-4 en route to the title.

Again, I think the market is wrong here and am happy to back the outsider.

Posted at 2030 BST on 28/05/23

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