NASCAR Betting Guide: Advent Health 400

For the second straight week, Kyle Larson is gobbling up a ton of win equity in my NASCAR Cup Series model.

I've currently got Larson at 18.7% to win, which feels like a massive number. But it's not big enough to overcome the 20.0% implied odds with Larson sitting at +400 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

So, when digging into Larson's odds at FanDuel, specifically, I can't recommend it. It's a different story at the spots where he's still +500 (16.7% implied odds), but at FanDuel, he's sucking up win juice without leaving much for everybody else.

As a result, we're going to start things off pretty light here prior to practice and qualifying and Saturday night. I'll also be primarily looking at markets that navigate around Larson as I do think he deserves to be where he's at in the outright market.

Which bets should we target for the Advent Health 400 after accounting for how silly Larson is? Here are three that have my eye right now.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+430)

As with the Larson outright, shop around before taking AJ Allmendinger to finish top 10. He's still available at +500 in some other spots. But even at +430, he's a value by my numbers.

My model puts Allmendinger's top-10 odds at 22.4%, up from 18.9% implied at +430. So even at this shorter number, it's still a decent edge.

The reason for the confidence in Allmendinger comes from what Kaulig did on 1.5-mile tracks in the playoffs. Both Allmendinger (at Homestead) and Justin Haley (at Texas) notched a podium in that stretch, and Allmendinger was ninth in Vegas, as well. Haley added to that momentum with a top-10 finish at Vegas this spring.

Allmendinger wasn't quite as strong there with a 19th-place average running position, but he certainly wasn't out to lunch. The gap between the model and the market is big enough here where I'd like to bet Allmendinger before practice just in case he shows speed there.

Ross Chastain to Win Group 2 (+230)

I've got value on Ross Chastain to win (8.2% versus 7.7% implied at +1200), so we could easily just go that route. But it's not a huge edge, and it could evaporate on Saturday.

As such, I think this is the optimal way to bet Chastain, over a group featuring Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Bubba Wallace.

Obviously, that's no weak group. Elliott is a former champion who drives for the sport's dominant team, Busch has won twice this year, and Wallace won the most recent race in Kansas. But Chastain has been pushing for wins on this track type in the Next-Gen era, too.

Chastain has had a top-10 average running position in all eight Next-Gen races on 1.5-mile tracks. That includes a fifth-place mark this year in Vegas, masked by a 12th-place finish. He has typically converted in the others, though, with five finishes of seventh or better, including three podiums.

As the model shows, Chastain has the upside to win the race. But betting this market allows me to avoid Larson and William Byron on top of most of the strong Toyotas. To me, that makes it the most attractive market for betting Chastain pre-practice.

Chris Buescher to Win Group 3 (+260)

The Chastain group bet is a bet on Chastain. This one is a bet against the two other organizations in the group.

Chris Buescher drives for RFK Racing, which has been steadily rising since last summer. His competition is Erik Jones (Legacy MC), Aric Almirola, and Ryan Preece (both Stewart-Haas Racing).

Legacy MC has been putrid to start the year. We potentially got an explanation for that this week with the announcement they'll switch to Toyota in 2024, meaning their funding from Chevrolet has likely been cut. I love Jones the talent; I hate his situation.

As for Stewart-Haas, they were wretched at the two equipment-centric tracks earlier in the year (Fontana and Las Vegas). They combined for two average running positions better than 18th, both of which came from Kevin Harvick.

Buescher didn't necessarily light it up in either race, but he was at least respectable, and he had good finishes in the playoffs last year at Homestead, Kansas, and Vegas. I think tracking the trajectory of each team in this group allows us to bet Buescher even if we don't expect him to compete for a top-five.